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A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account

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  • Chen, Kaiji
  • Imrohoroglu, Ayse
  • Imrohoroglu, Selahattin

Abstract

Low frequency changes in the U.S. current account can be understood in terms of the influence of differences in productivity growth rates across time and across countries using standard growth theory. In particular, the secular decline is primarily driven by the increase in the U.S. TFP growth rate relative to its trading partners. Differences in population growth rates or fiscal policy have no significant effects on the low frequency changes in the U.S. current account.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Kaiji & Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin, 2009. "A quantitative assessment of the decline in the U.S. current account," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1135-1147, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:56:y:2009:i:8:p:1135-1147
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    6. Frank Schorfheide, 2008. "Comment on "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 149-163, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ellen McGrattan & Edward Prescott, 2006. "Why Did U.S. Market Hours Boom in the 1990s?," NBER Working Papers 12046, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ghate, Chetan & Gopalakrishnan, Pawan & Saha, Anuradha, 2025. "The Great Indian Savings Puzzle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. İşcan, Talan B., 2011. "Productivity growth and the U.S. saving rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 501-514.
    10. Marek Kapička, 2012. "How Important Is Technology Capital for the United States?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 218-248, April.
    11. Hui He & Kevin x.d. Huang, 2013. "Why Do Americans Spend So Much More on Health Care than Europeans?--A General Equilibrium Macroeconomic Analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 13-00005, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    12. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    13. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim & Frank Schorfheide, 2010. "Labor-Market Heterogeneity, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique," RCER Working Papers 556, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    14. Dur, Ayşe & Glover, Andrew & Rothert, Jacek, 2025. "Uninsurable income risk and the welfare effects of reducing global imbalances," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    15. David Amdur & Eylem Ersal Kiziler, 2014. "Trend shocks and the countercyclical U.S. current account," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 47(2), pages 494-516, May.
    16. Hui He & Kevin X.D. Huang & Lei Ning, 2021. "Why Do Americans Spend So Much More On Health Care Than Europeans?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1363-1399, November.
    17. Sun-Bin Kim & Frank Schorfheide & Yongsung Chang, 2010. "Financial Frictions, Aggregation, and the Lucas Critique," 2010 Meeting Papers 31, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Mathias Hoffmann & Michael U Krause & Thomas Laubach, 2019. "The Expectations-driven US Current Account," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 897-924.
    19. Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Sudo, Nao, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," Economic Review, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 62(1), pages 44-56, January.
    20. Bonfatti, Andrea & İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri, 2022. "Japan and the allocation puzzle in an aging world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    21. Hoffmann, Mathias & Krause, Michael & Laubach, Thomas, 2011. "Long-run growth expectations and 'global imbalances'," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,01, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    22. Ellen R. McGrattan & Edward C. Prescott, 2010. "Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling US Boom in the 1990s," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(4), pages 88-123, October.
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