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Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?

Author

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  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu

    (Professor, Department of Finance and Business Economics, Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California (E-mail: simrohor@marshall.usc.edu))

  • Nao Sudo

    (Deputy Director, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan (E-mail: nao.sudou@boj.or.jp))

Abstract

Japan has the highest debt to GDP ratio among the developed nations. In addition, the population is projected to age rapidly over the next few decades, which will significantly increase the ratio of government expenditures to GDP. In this paper, we explore the effect of economic growth driven by total factor productivity on Japanese debt in the face of higher future social security expenditures. Our main finding is that a decade of unprecedentedly fast growth of total factor productivity, at an average of 6% per year, is needed in order for Japan to eliminate its debt. Since this is very unrealistic, what is needed is a significant reduction in government expenditures together with an increase in the consumption tax rate, to eliminate debt in forty years.

Suggested Citation

  • Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Nao Sudo, 2011. "Will a Growth Miracle Reduce Debt in Japan?," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-01, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    • Handle: RePEc:ime:imedps:11-e-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
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    8. Takero Doi & Toshihiro Ihori & Kiyoshi Mitsui, 2007. "Sustainability, Debt Management, and Public Debt Policy in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, pages 377-412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Kaiji Chen & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu, 2007. "The Japanese saving rate between 1960 and 2000: productivity, policy changes, and demographics," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 32(1), pages 87-104, July.
    10. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Dreger, 2017. "Long-term growth perspectives in Japan and the Euro area," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 363-375, December.
    2. Nakajima, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Shuhei, 2017. "The optimum quantity of debt for Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 17-26.
    3. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2017. "Can Guest Workers Solve Japan'S Fiscal Problems?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(3), pages 1287-1307, July.
    4. Arai, Real & Ueda, Junji, 2013. "A numerical evaluation of the sustainable size of the primary deficit in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 59-75.
    5. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2016. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 201-224, July.
    6. İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri & Yamada, Tomoaki, 2019. "Fiscal sustainability in Japan: What to tackle?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    7. Naoyuki Yoshino & Uwe Vollmer, 2014. "The sovereign debt crisis: why Greece, but not Japan?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 325-344, September.
    8. Ichiro Muto & Takemasa Oda & Nao Sudo, 2016. "Macroeconomic Impact of Population Aging in Japan: A Perspective from an Overlapping Generations Model," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 408-442, August.
    9. Heller, Peter S., 2016. "The challenge of an aged and shrinking population: Lessons to be drawn from Japan’s experience," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 85-93.
    10. Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Sagiri Kitao & Tomoaki Yamada, 2016. "Achieving Fiscal Balance In Japan," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 57(1), pages 117-154, February.
    11. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2012. "Defying Gravity: How Long Will Japanese Government Bond Prices Remain High?," NBER Working Papers 18287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Morita, Hiroshi, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability and regime shifts in Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 364-375.
    13. W. R. Garside, 2012. "Japan’s Great Stagnation," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14624.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government Debt; Productivity; Fiscal Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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