Demographic Dividends Revisited
This paper revisits demographic dividend issues after almost two decades of debate. In 1998, David Bloom and Jeffrey Williamson used a convergence model to estimate the impact of demographic-transition-driven age structure effects and calculated what the literature has come to call the demographic dividend. How do estimates based on these naïve convergence models compare with subsequent and competing OLG models? How much of the (first) demographic dividend is simply a labor participation rate effect, and how much a true growth effect? If there are growth effects, how much of this is based on accelerating human capital accumulation induced by demand side quality-quantity Becker trade-offs versus a co-movement between demographic transitions and exogenous schooling supply side revolutions? Emigration has passed through life cycles much like the demographic transition, and with similar (but lagged) timing. Has emigration actually been driven in part by demography? Has emigration wasted some of the demographic dividend by brain drain? Have within-country rural-urban migrations been driven in part by demographic transitions with different spatial timing? Finally, what has been the lifetime – not just annual -- income inequality impact of demographic transitions?
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Centre for Economic Policy Research, 77 Bastwick Street, London EC1V 3PZ.|
Phone: 44 - 20 - 7183 8801
Fax: 44 - 20 - 7183 8820
|Order Information:|| Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Miguel Sánchez Romero, 2011.
"The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates,"
MPIDR Working Papers
WP-2011-015, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
- Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
- Williamson, Jeffrey G., 1979. "Why do Koreans save so little?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 343-362, August.
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002.
"Data Appendix to The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade,"
hayashi02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Borjas, George J, 1987.
"Self-Selection and the Earnings of Immigrants,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 531-53, September.
- Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Ayse Imrohoroglu & Kaiji Chen, 2006. "The Japanese Saving Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1850-1858, December.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009.
"The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, 02.
- R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2007. "The Saving Rate in Japan: Why It Has Fallen and Why It Will Remain Low," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-535, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
- Douglas H. Joines & R.Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2008. "The saving rate in Japan: Why it has fallen and why it will remain low," CARF F-Series CARF-F-117, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
- Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004.
"The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade,"
in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Steven Lugauer & Nelson Mark, 2010.
"Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China,"
007, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2015. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 58-94, April.
- Chadwick C. Curtis & Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark, 2011. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," NBER Working Papers 16828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Steven Lugauer & Nelson C. Mark & Chadwick R. Curtis, 2011. "Demographic Patterns and Household Saving in China," 2011 Meeting Papers 529, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, September.
- Brander, James A & Dowrick, Steve, 1994.
"The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25.
- James A. Brander & Steve Dowrick, 1993. "The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical ResultsFrom Aggregate Cross-National Data," NBER Working Papers 4270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Barro, 1991.
"Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
- Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, R.J., 1989. "Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries," RCER Working Papers 201, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Andrew Mason & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2005.
"East Asian Economic Development: Two Demographic Dividends,"
Economics Study Area Working Papers
83, East-West Center, Economics Study Area.
- Mason, Andrew & Kinugasa, Tomoko, 2008. "East Asian economic development: Two demographic dividends," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5-6), pages 389-399.
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
- Easterlin, Richard A., 1981. "Why Isn't the Whole World Developed?," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(01), pages 1-17, March.
- Engerman,Stanley L. & Sokoloff,Kenneth L., 2012.
"Economic Development in the Americas since 1500,"
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521251372, Junio.
- Andrew Mason, 2001. "Population Change and Economic Development: What Have we Learned from the East Asia Experience?," Working Papers 200103, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
- Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.), 2007. "Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12608.
- Macunovich, Diane J, 1998. "Relative Cohort Size and Inequality in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 259-64, May.
- Alwyn Young, 1994. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," NBER Working Papers 4680, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kuznets, Simon, 1976. " Demographic Aspects of the Size Distribution of Income: An Exploratory Essay," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(1), pages 1-94, October.
- Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, 06.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9390. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.