IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/sajeco/v88y2020i4p551-574.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Włodarczyk
  • Indranarain Ramlall
  • Jan Acedański

Abstract

The economic literature focuses mostly on faster ageing of population among developed countries; however, many developing countries experience even more dramatic pace of this process. Mauritius, with the median age of population higher than the world average since 1990s, represents a prominent example of such a case. In this paper, we analyse demographic developments in Mauritius and discuss their macroeconomic implications using an open‐economy OLG model with demographic shocks. We project that a decline in the Mauritian interest rate and net foreign assets to GDP resulting from ageing will be accompanied by a temporary increase in GDP, consumption and investment.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Włodarczyk & Indranarain Ramlall & Jan Acedański, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 551-574, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:88:y:2020:i:4:p:551-574
    DOI: 10.1111/saje.12266
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/saje.12266
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/saje.12266?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    3. repec:ags:aaea07:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    5. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    6. dʼAlbis, Hippolyte & Lau, Sau-Him Paul & Sánchez-Romero, Miguel, 2012. "Mortality transition and differential incentives for early retirement," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 261-283.
    7. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    8. Ikeda, Daisuke & Saito, Masashi, 2014. "The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 37-48.
    9. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda & Douglas H. Joines, 2009. "The Saving Rate In Japan: Why It Has Fallen And Why It Will Remain Low," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 291-321, February.
    10. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Feng Zhu, 2016. "Understanding the changing equilibrium real interest rates in Asia-Pacific," BIS Working Papers 567, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2017. "Secular Stagnation? The Effect of Aging on Economic Growth in the Age of Automation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 174-179, May.
    13. Cai, Jie & Stoyanov, Andrey, 2016. "Population aging and comparative advantage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-21.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/6825 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Yunus Aksoy & Henrique S. Basso & Ron P. Smith & Tobias Grasl, 2019. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 193-222, January.
    17. Goodhart, Charles & Pradhan, Manoj, 2017. "Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84208, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Williamson, Jeffrey G., 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Kara, Engin & von Thadden, Leopold, 2016. "Interest Rate Effects Of Demographic Changes In A New Keynesian Life-Cycle Framework," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 120-164, January.
    20. Robin Brooks, 2003. "Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(2), pages 1-3.
    21. Mahmood Messkoub, 1999. "Crisis of Ageing in Less Developed Countries: Too Much Consumption or Too Little Production?," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 30(2), pages 217-235, April.
    22. Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 30(2), pages 1-25, September.
    23. Nicholas Barr & Peter Diamond, 2006. "The Economics of Pensions," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 22(1), pages 15-39, Spring.
    24. Katerina Lisenkova & Marcel Merette & Robert Wright, 2012. "The Impact of Population Ageing on the Labour Market: Evidence from Overlapping Generations Computable General Equilibrium (OLG-CGE) Model of Scotland (*)," Working Papers 1213, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    25. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    26. Mr. N. A. Barr, 2000. "Reforming Pensions: Myths, Truths, and Policy Choices," IMF Working Papers 2000/139, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra Silva, 2017. "The Impact Of Population Ageing On Economic Growth: A Bibliometric Survey," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(02), pages 275-296, June.
    28. John B. Casterline & John Bongaarts & Mahesh Karra & David Canning & Joshua Wilde, 2017. "The Effect of Fertility Decline on Economic Growth in Africa: A Macrosimulation Model," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 43, pages 237-263, May.
    29. repec:ags:aaea07:373 is not listed on IDEAS
    30. Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan, 2017. "Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends," BIS Working Papers 656, Bank for International Settlements.
    31. Steve Muchiri & John Garen, 2018. "Social Transfer Benefits and Retirement Decisions: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(1), pages 23-52, March.
    32. McMillan, Henry M. & Baesel, Jerome B., 1990. "The macroeconomic impact of the baby boom generation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 167-195.
    33. Mauricio Soto & Mr. Vimal V Thakoor & Mr. Martin Petri, 2015. "Pension Reforms in Mauritius: Fair and Fast—Balancing Social Protection and Fiscal Sustainability," IMF Working Papers 2015/126, International Monetary Fund.
    34. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Peter Diamond & Nicholas Barr, 2006. "(UBS Pensions Series 041) The Economics of Pensions," FMG Discussion Papers dp563, Financial Markets Group.
    36. Guest, Ross S., 2006. "Population ageing, capital mobility and optimal saving," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 89-102, January.
    37. Fehr, Hans & Kallweit, Manuel & Kindermann, Fabian, 2012. "Pension reform with variable retirement age: a simulation analysis for Germany," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 389-417, July.
    38. da Silva Francisco, António A., 2017. "‘Gerontogrowth’ and population ageing in Africa and the Global AgeWatch Index," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 78-89.
    39. Lenehan, A. J., 1996. "The macroeconomic effects of the postwar baby boom: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 155-169.
    40. repec:edn:sirdps:373 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Jan Acedański & Julia Włodarczyk, 2018. "Demographics, retirement age, and real interest rates in Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 355-385, December.
    42. Anna Cristina D'Addio & Mark Keese & Edward Whitehouse, 2010. "Population ageing and labour markets," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 613-635, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Noda, Hideo & Fang, Fengqi, 2025. "Public Investment Financed by Seigniorage, Money Supply Control and Inflation Dynamics in Sub-Saharan African Countries," MPRA Paper 125632, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jan Acedański & Julia Włodarczyk, 2018. "Demographics, retirement age, and real interest rates in Poland," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 355-385, December.
    2. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    3. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    4. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.
    6. Carlos Carvalho & Andrea Ferrero & Felipe R. Mazin & Fernanda Nechio, 2024. "Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Dániel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 67, Bank of Lithuania.
    8. Ho, Paul, 2024. "Estimating the effects of demographics on interest rates: A robust Bayesian perspective," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    9. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    10. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Papetti, Andrea, 2020. "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective," Working Paper Series 2382, European Central Bank.
    12. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    13. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    14. Sudo, Nao & Takizuka, Yasutaka, 2020. "Population Aging And The Real Interest Rate In The Last And Next 50 Years: A Tale Told By An Overlapping Generations Model," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(8), pages 2060-2103, December.
    15. Schön, Matthias & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "When old meets young? Germany's population ageing and the current account," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 315-336.
    16. Auclert, Adrien & Malmberg, Hannes & Martenet, Frederic & Rognlie, Matthew, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," CEPR Discussion Papers 16470, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Arthur Jacobs & Freddy Heylen, 2021. "Demographic change, secular stagnation and inequality: automation as a blessing?," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 21/1030, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    18. Thomas Ziesemer & Anne von Gässler, 2021. "Ageing, human capital and demographic dividends with endogenous growth, labour supply and foreign capital," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 20(2), pages 129-160, May.
    19. Joseph Kopecky Author-1-Name-First: Joseph Author-1-Name-Last: Kopecky, 2023. "Population age structure and secular stagnation: Evidence from long run data," Trinity Economics Papers tep0526, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    20. Jacopo Bonchi & Guido Caracciolo, 2022. "Declining US Natural Interest Rate: Quantifying and Qualifying the Role of Pensions," Working Papers 506, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2022.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:88:y:2020:i:4:p:551-574. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/essaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.