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Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends

Author

Listed:
  • Charles Goodhart
  • Manoj Pradhan

Abstract

Between the 1980s and the 2000s, the largest ever positive labour supply shock occurred, resulting from demographic trends and from the inclusion of China and eastern Europe into the World Trade Organization. This led to a shift in manufacturing to Asia, especially China; a stagnation in real wages; a collapse in the power of private sector trade unions; increasing inequality within countries, but less inequality between countries; deflationary pressures; and falling interest rates. This shock is now reversing. As the world ages, real interest rates will rise, inflation and wage growth will pick up and inequality will fall. What is the biggest challenge to our thesis? The hardest prior trend to reverse will be that of low interest rates, which have resulted in a huge and persistent debt overhang, apart from some deleveraging in advanced economy banks. Future problems may now intensify as the demographic structure worsens, growth slows, and there is little stomach for major inflation. Are we in a trap where the debt overhang enforces continuing low interest rates, and those low interest rates encourage yet more debt finance? There is no silver bullet, but we recommend policy measures to switch from debt to equity finance.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan, 2017. "Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends," BIS Working Papers 656, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:656
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Francois Mercier, 2023. "Quo vadis rstar," Occasional Bulletin of Economic Notes 11046, South African Reserve Bank.
    2. Mr. Adrian Peralta & Agustin Roitman, 2018. "Technology and the Future of Work," IMF Working Papers 2018/207, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. R. Anton Braun & Daisuke Ikeda, 2022. "Why Aging Induces Deflation and Secular Stagnation," IMES Discussion Paper Series 22-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    5. repec:rbz:oboens:11027 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    7. Noëmie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 43-80, June.
    8. Carlos Carvalho & Andrea Ferrero & Felipe Mazin & Fernanda Nechio, 2023. "Demographics and Real Interest Rates Across Countries and Over Time," Working Paper Series 2023-32, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Papapetrou, Evangelia & Tsalaporta, Pinelopi, 2020. "The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 77-95.
    10. Bodnár, Katalin & Nerlich, Carolin, 2022. "The macroeconomic and fiscal impact of population ageing," Occasional Paper Series 296, European Central Bank.
    11. Perotti, Enrico & Döttling, Robin, 2017. "Secular Trends and Technological Progress," CEPR Discussion Papers 12519, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Apel, Mikael & Armelius, Hanna & Claussen, Carl Andreas, 2017. "The level of the inflation target – a review of the issues," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, issue 2, pages 36-56.
    13. Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    14. Julia Włodarczyk & Indranarain Ramlall & Jan Acedański, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 551-574, December.
    15. Wang, Lei & Zhu, Taihui, 2021. "Population aging and money demand," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    16. Brendon Riches, 2022. "Fiscal and monetary policy interaction at the effective lower bound," Treasury Analytical Notes Series an22/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    17. B. De Backer & J. Wauters, 2017. "The cyclical and structural determinants of the low interest rate environment," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 69-86, september.
    18. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    19. People's Bank of China, 2023. "Labour market and inflation: the case of China," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation and labour markets, volume 127, pages 85-101, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Kapeliushnikov, Rostislav I. (Капелюшников, Ростислав И.), 2019. "The Phenomenon of Population Aging: Major Economic Effects [Феномен Старения Населения: Экономические Эффекты]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 8-53, June.
    21. György Matolcsy & Márton Nagy & Dániel Palotai & Barnabás Virág, 2020. "Inflation in the Digital Age: Inflation Measurement and Bias in the 21st Century," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 19(1), pages 5-36.
    22. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2017. "Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates," BIS Working Papers 685, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    demography; global labor supply; ageing; real interest rates; inequality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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