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Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis

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  • Dennis Bonam
  • Gabriele Galati
  • Irma Hindrayanto
  • Marco Hoeberichts
  • Anna Samarina
  • Irina Stanga

Abstract

This study analyzes the behavior of inflation observed in the euro area over the past decade from a broad perspective. We first document changes in the inflation process, i.e. the dynamics of inflation and its response to shocks. We then discuss whether the Phillips curve is still a useful analytical paradigm. Next, we present evidence based on an Unobserved Components Model that the Phillips curve is "alive and well", in the sense that estimates show a positive and significant relationship between slack in the economy and inflation. At the same time, there is evidence of a downward trend in inflation in a sample that covers the past decades (1985-2017). While this past trend can be associated with a decline over time in inflation expectations, other deeper factors may be also at work, including the ongoing globalization trend, the declining bargaining power of labor, technological progress and the rise of e-commerce, demographic changes and financial factors. The complex nature of these forces and their interaction underscores the uncertainty that characterizes the current macroeconomic environment, and future research is needed to analyze to what extent these forces are likely to persist. Finally, we discuss possible implications of our analysis for monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Bonam & Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Marco Hoeberichts & Anna Samarina & Irina Stanga, 2019. "Inflation in the euro area since the Global Financial Crisis," DNB Occasional Studies 1703, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:dnb:dnbocs:1703
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    2. Hahn, Elke, 2020. "The wage-price pass-through in the euro area: does the growth regime matter?," Working Paper Series 2485, European Central Bank.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," Working Paper Series 2471, European Central Bank.
    4. Petr Polak & Filip Novotny, 2020. "Consumer and industrial prices in 2020 - the year of the coronavirus," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Global Economic Outlook - December 2020, pages 12-18, Czech National Bank.

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