IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04459531.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Population Aging and the Macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • Noémie Lisack

    (Banque de France - Banque de France - Banque de France)

  • Rana Sajedi

    (Bank of England - Bank of England)

  • Gregory Thwaites

    (UON - University of Nottingham, UK)

Abstract

We quantify the impact of demographic change on real interest rates, house prices, and household debt in an overlapping-generations model. Falling birth and death rates across advanced economies can explain much of the observed fall in real interest rates and the rise in house prices and household debt. Since households maintain relatively high wealth levels throughout retirement, these trends will persist as population aging continues. Countries aging relatively slowly, such as the United States, will increasingly accumulate net foreign liabilities. The availability of housing as an alternative store of value attenuates these trends, while raising the retirement age has limited effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Noémie Lisack & Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2021. "Population Aging and the Macroeconomy," Post-Print hal-04459531, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04459531
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Katharina Knoll & Moritz Schularick & Thomas Steger, 2017. "No Price Like Home: Global House Prices, 1870-2012," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 331-353, February.
    3. Krueger, Dirk & Ludwig, Alexander, 2007. "On the consequences of demographic change for rates of returns to capital, and the distribution of wealth and welfare," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 49-87, January.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero & Emmanuel Farhi & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 2017. "Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns on Capital, Earning Yields, and Factor Shares," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 614-620, May.
    5. Rana Sajedi & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Why Are Real Interest Rates So Low? The Role of the Relative Price of Investment Goods," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(4), pages 635-659, November.
    6. David Domeij & Martin Flodén, 2006. "Population Aging And International Capital Flows," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(3), pages 1013-1032, August.
    7. Holston, Kathryn & Laubach, Thomas & Williams, John C., 2017. "Measuring the natural rate of interest: International trends and determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(S1), pages 59-75.
    8. Carvalho, Carlos & Ferrero, Andrea & Nechio, Fernanda, 2016. "Demographics and real interest rates: Inspecting the mechanism," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 208-226.
    9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life‐cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, September.
    10. Mariacristina De Nardi & Eric French & John Bailey Jones, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Old Age Savings," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 110-115, May.
    11. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    12. Goodhart, Charles & Pradhan, Manoj, 2017. "Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 84208, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Andrew Glover & Jonathan Heathcote & Dirk Krueger & José-Víctor Ríos-Rull, 2020. "Intergenerational Redistribution in the Great Recession," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3730-3778.
    14. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, March.
    15. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Neil R. Mehrotra & Jacob A. Robbins, 2019. "A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 1-48, January.
    16. Lisack, Noëmie & Sajedi, Rana & Thwaites, Gregory, 2017. "Demographic trends and the real interest rate," Bank of England working papers 701, Bank of England.
    17. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Caballero, Ricardo, 2017. "Rents, Technical Change, and Risk Premia: Accounting for Secular Trends in Interest Rates, Returns to Capital, Earnings Yields," CEPR Discussion Papers 11833, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    19. Lukasz Rachel & Thomas D. Smith, 2017. "Are Low Real Interest Rates Here to Stay?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 1-42, September.
    20. Charles I. Jones & Peter J. Klenow, 2016. "Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(9), pages 2426-2457, September.
    21. Charles Goodhart & Manoj Pradhan, 2017. "Demographics will reverse three multi-decade global trends," BIS Working Papers 656, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Kinugasa, Tomoko & Mason, Andrew, 2007. "Why Countries Become Wealthy: The Effects of Adult Longevity on Saving," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-23, January.
    23. Waldron, Matt & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2010. "Household debt, house prices and consumption in the United Kingdom: a quantitative theoretical analysis," Bank of England working papers 379, Bank of England.
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1evugr7cvq8naonad7623t1rbv is not listed on IDEAS
    25. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bailey, Andrew & Cesa-Bianchi, Ambrogio & Garofalo, Marco & Harrison, Richard & McLaren, Nick & Sajedi, Rana & Piton, Sophie, 2023. "Structural change, global R* and the missing-investment puzzle," Bank of England working papers 997, Bank of England.
    2. Bonfatti, Andrea & İmrohoroğlu, Selahattin & Kitao, Sagiri, 2022. "Japan and the allocation puzzle in an aging world," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    3. Heo, Ye Jin, 2022. "Population aging and house prices: Who are we calling old?," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    4. Vlieghe, Gertjan, 2022. "Demographics and other constraints on future monetary policy," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    5. Giacomo Mangiante, 2022. "Demographic Trends and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 22.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Papetti, Andrea, 2021. "Demographics and the natural real interest Rate: historical and projected paths for the euro area," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    2. Marx, Magali & Mojon, Benoît & Velde, François R., 2021. "Why have interest rates fallen far below the return on capital?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 57-76.
    3. Brand, Claus & Bielecki, Marcin & Penalver, Adrian, 2018. "The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy JEL Classification: E52, E43," Occasional Paper Series 217, European Central Bank.
    4. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2022. "Why So Low for So Long? A Long-Term View of Real Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 18(3), pages 47-87, September.
    6. Jacopo Bonchi & Giacomo Caracciolo, 2021. "Declining natural interest rate in the US: the pension system matters," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1317, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Joseph Kopecky & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "The Murder-Suicide of the Rentier: Population Aging and the Risk Premium," NBER Working Papers 26943, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & David López-Salido, 2021. "Understanding the New Normal: The Role of Demographics," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 357-390, June.
    9. Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Papetti, Andrea, 2020. "Demographics and inflation in the euro area: a two-sector new Keynesian perspective," Working Paper Series 2382, European Central Bank.
    10. Bárány, Zsófia L. & Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Guibaud, Stéphane, 2023. "Capital flows in an aging world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    11. Alexius, Annika, 2017. "Why are real interest rates so low? Evidence from a structural VAR with sign restrictions," Research Papers in Economics 2017:6, Stockholm University, Department of Economics.
    12. Claudio Borio & Piti Disyatat & Mikael Juselius & Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2017. "Why so low for so long? A long-term view of real interest rates," BIS Working Papers 685, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_036 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Emmanuel Farhi & Francois Gourio, 2018. "Accounting for Macro-Finance Trends: Market Power, Intangibles, and Risk Premia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 147-250.
    16. Bielecki, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin, 2020. "Demographics and the natural interest rate in the euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Julia Włodarczyk & Indranarain Ramlall & Jan Acedański, 2020. "Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(4), pages 551-574, December.
    18. Andrea BONFATTI & Selahattin Ä°MROHOROÄžLU & KITAO Sagiri, 2019. "Aging, Factor Prices and Capital Flows," Discussion papers 19110, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    19. Andrea Bonfatti & Sagiri Kitao & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2018. "Aging, Factor Prices, and Capital Movements," 2018 Meeting Papers 245, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. B. De Backer & J. Wauters, 2017. "The cyclical and structural determinants of the low interest rate environment," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue ii, pages 69-86, september.
    21. Andrea Papetti, 2021. "Population aging, relative prices and capital flows across the globe," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1333, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04459531. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.