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On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty

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  • Cruz, Marcio
  • Ahmed, S. Amer

Abstract

Changing population age structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has been a matter of concern for upper-middle and high-income economies, rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the working-age shares of their population, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and estimates the association between changes in the share of working-age population with per capita growth and poverty rate. An increase in the working-age population share and a reduction in the child dependency ratio are found to be associated with an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth, with similarly positive effects on poverty reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Cruz, Marcio & Ahmed, S. Amer, 2018. "On the impact of demographic change on economic growth and poverty," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 95-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:105:y:2018:i:c:p:95-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.12.018
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    Cited by:

    1. Njangang, Henri & Nawo, Larissa, 2018. "Relevance of governance quality on the effect of foreign direct investment on economic growth: new evidence from African countries," MPRA Paper 90136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Junying Lin & Zhonggen Zhang & Lingli Lv, 2019. "The Impact of Program Participation on Rural Household Income: Evidence from China’s Whole Village Poverty Alleviation Program," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(6), pages 1-15, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic change; Economic growth; Poverty;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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