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Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia

Author

Listed:
  • David E. Bloom

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • Jocelyn Finlay

    () (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

The decline in the total fertility rate between 1960 and 2005, coupled with an increase in life expectancy and the dynamic evolution of past variation in birth and death rates, is producing a significant shift in age structure in Asia. The age distribution has shifted from one with a high youth-age population share to one with a high old-age population share. We illustrate the role of these separate forces in shaping the age distribution. We also argue that the economic consequences of population aging depend on behavioral responses to the shift in age structure: the female labor force participation response to the decline in fertility, child quality/quantity trade-off in the face of the fertility decline, savings adjustments to an increase in life expectancy, and social security distortions insofar as the pace of life expectancy improvements is faster than the pace of policy adjustments. We estimate the association between old- and youth-age population shares and economic growth. The results suggest that population aging may not significantly impede economic performance in Asia in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn Finlay, 2008. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," PGDA Working Papers 4008, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  • Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:4008
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. James, Alex & Aadland, David, 2011. "The curse of natural resources: An empirical investigation of U.S. counties," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 440-453, May.
    2. Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2007. "Demographically based global income forecasts up to the year 2050," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 553-567.
    3. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
    4. Sjöholm, Fredrik & Sjöberg, Örjan, 2005. "The Cambodian Economy: Ready For Take-Off?," EIJS Working Paper Series 209, Stockholm School of Economics, The European Institute of Japanese Studies.
    5. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2010. "Population Aging and Economic Growth in Asia," NBER Chapters,in: The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia, NBER-EASE Volume 19, pages 61-89 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Jisung Park & Seongsu Kim, 2015. "The differentiating effects of workforce aging on exploitative and exploratory innovation: The moderating role of workforce diversity," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 481-503, June.
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    8. Huabin Wei & Yanqing Jiang & Yuxing Zhang, 2015. "A Review of Two Population Growth Models and an Analysis of Factors Affecting the Chinese Population Growth," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(1), pages 8-20, March.
    9. Ben Heijdra & Jochen Mierau, 2011. "The Individual Life Cycle and Economic Growth: An Essay on Demographic Macroeconomics," De Economist, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 63-87, March.
    10. Felipe, Jesus & Bayudan-Dacuycuy, Connie & Lanzafame, Matteo, 2016. "The declining share of agricultural employment in China: How fast?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 127-137.
    11. Derek D. Headey & Andrew Hodge, 2009. "The Effect of Population Growth on Economic Growth: A Meta-Regression Analysis of the Macroeconomic Literature," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(2), pages 221-248.
    12. Majid, Nomaan., 2015. "The great employment transformation in China," ILO Working Papers 994892543402676, International Labour Organization.
    13. Choudhry, Misbah T. & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 218-236, September.
    14. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:5:p:1528-:d:145762 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ernesto Friedrich de Lima Amaral & Joseph E. Potter & Daniel Hamermesh & Eduardo Rios-Neto, 2013. "Age, education, and earnings in the course of Brazilian development: Does composition matter?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(20), pages 581-612, March.

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    Keywords

    Global health; fertility; Asia; labor; Aging.;

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