Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition
For decades, economists and social thinkers have debated the influence of population change on economic growth. Three alternative positions define this debate: that population growth restricts, promotes, or is independent of economic growth. Proponents of each explanation can find evidence to support their cases. All of these explanations, however, focus on population size and growth. In recent years, however, the debate has under-emphasized a critical issue, the age structure of the population (that is, the way in which the population is distributed across different age groups), which can change dramatically as the population grows. Because people's economic behavior varies at different stages of life, changes in a country's age structure can have significant effects on its economic performance. Nations with a high proportion of children are likely to devote a high proportion of resources to their care, which tends to depress the pace of economic growth. By contrast, if most of a nation's population falls within the working ages, the added productivity of this group can produce a 'demographic dividend' of economic growth, assuming that policies to take advantage of this are in place. In fact, the combined effect of this large working-age population and health, family, labor, financial, and human capital policies can create virtuous cycles of wealth creation. And if a large proportion of a nation's population consists of the elderly, the effects can be similar to those of a very young population. A large share of resources is needed by a relatively less productive segment of the population, which likewise can inhibit economic growth. After tracing the history of theories of the effects of population growth, this report reviews evidence on the relevance of changes in age structure for economic growth. It also examines the relationship between population change and economic development in particular regions of the world: East Asia; Japan; OECD, North America and Western Europe; South-central and Southeast Asia; Latin America; Middle East and North Africa; Sub-Saharan Africa; and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. Finally, it discusses the key policy variables that, combined with reduced fertility and increases in the working-age population, have contributed to economic growth in some areas of the developing world.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2001|
|Date of revision:|
|Note:||AG HC LS|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.nber.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009.
"Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia,"
Asian Economic Policy Review,
Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
NBER Working Papers
6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- Samuelson, Paul A, 1975. "The Optimum Growth Rate for Population," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 16(3), pages 531-38, October.
- Galor, Oded & Weil, David, 1999.
"From Malthusian Stagnation to Modern Growth,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
2082, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- David Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "The Health and Poverty of Nations: From theory to practice," Journal of Human Development and Capabilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 47-71.
- Gary S. Becker, 1960. "An Economic Analysis of Fertility," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 209-240 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1990.
"A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3541, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1999.
"Age Distributions and the Current Account -A Changing Relation?,"
Working Paper Series
1999:21, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
- Lindh, T. & Malmberg, B., 1999. "Age Distributions and the Current Account - A Changing Relation?," Papers 1999:21, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
- Simon Kuznets, 1960. "Population Change and Aggregate Output," NBER Chapters, in: Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries, pages 324-351 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 2000. "Can age structure forecast inflation trends?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 31-49.
- Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999.
"Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia,"
CID Working Papers
15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Bloom, David & Craig, Patricia & Malaney, Pia N., 2001. "The Quality of Life in Rural Asia," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195924541, March.
- Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "The Relevance of Malthus for the Study of Mortality Today: Long-Run Influences on Health, Mortality, Labor Force Participation, and Population Growth," NBER Historical Working Papers 0054, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Katherin Ross Phillips & Paul Gertler & Timothy M. Smeeding & Orazio P. Attanasio & Manfred Zeller & Hugo A. Hopenhayn & Estelle James & José-Victor Ríos-Rull & Steen Lau Jørgensen & Nora Lustig & Eli, 2001. "Shielding the Poor: Social Protection in the Developing World," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 50878 edited by Nora Lustig.
- Lindh, Thomas & Malmberg, Bo, 1998. "Age structure and inflation - a Wicksellian interpretation of the OECD data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 19-37, July.
- repec:idb:brikps:50878 is not listed on IDEAS
- David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "The Health and Wealth of Africa," World Economics, World Economics, Economic & Financial Publishing, 1 Ivory Square, Plantation Wharf, London, United Kingdom, SW11 3UE, vol. 5(2), pages 57-81, April.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gary S. Becker, 1981. "A Treatise on the Family," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck81-1, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8685. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.