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Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend

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  • David E. Bloom
  • Michael Kuhn
  • Klaus Prettner

Abstract

We assess Africa’s prospects for enjoying a demographic dividend. While fertility rates and dependency ratios in Africa remain high, they have started to decline. According to UN projections, they will fall further in the coming decades such that by the mid-21st century the ratio of the working-age to dependent population will be greater than in Asia, Europe, and Northern America. This projection suggests Africa has considerable potential to enjoy a demographic dividend. Whether and when it actually materializes, and also its magnitude, hinges on policies and institutions in key realms that include macroeconomic management, human capital, trade, governance, and labor and capital markets. Given strong complementarities among these areas, coordinated policies will likely be most effective in generating the momentum needed to pull Africa’s economies out of a development trap.

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  • David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2016. "Africa’s Prospects for Enjoying a Demographic Dividend," NBER Working Papers 22560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22560
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    1. Yeganeh Forouheshfar & Najat El Mekkaoui & Hippolyte d’Albis, 2020. "Demographics in MENA Countries: A Major Driver for Economic Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 183-213, June.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Abeliansky, Ana & Algur, Eda & Bloom, David E. & Prettner, Klaus, 2020. "The Future of Work: Challenges for Job Creation Due to Global Demographic Change and Automation," IZA Discussion Papers 12962, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. David E. Bloom & Alex Khoury & Vadim Kufenko & Klaus Prettner, 2021. "Spurring Economic Growth through Human Development: Research Results and Guidance for Policymakers," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(2), pages 377-409, June.
    5. Cummins, Matthew, 2019. "Population Dynamics and the Demographic Dividend Potential of Eastern and Southern Africa: A Primer," MPRA Paper 97735, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Büttner, Nicolas & Grimm, Michael & Günther, Isabel & Harttgen, Kenneth & Klasen, Stephan, 2022. "The fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa: The role of structural change," Passauer Diskussionspapiere, Volkswirtschaftliche Reihe V-90-22, University of Passau, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    7. Olaniyan, Olanrewaju & Olasehinde, Noah & Odufuwa, Oyeteju & Awodumi, Olabanji, 2021. "The nature and extent of demographic dividend in West Africa: National transfer account approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    8. Aniema Atorudibo, 2021. "Marriage Norms and Fertility Outcomes in Developing Countries," Studies in Economics 2101, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    9. Patrizio Vanella & Philipp Deschermeier & Christina B. Wilke, 2020. "An Overview of Population Projections—Methodological Concepts, International Data Availability, and Use Cases," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, September.
    10. Emmanuel Skoufias & Moulay Driss Zine Eddine El Idrissi, 2020. "Realizing Demographic Dividends in the Republic of Congo," World Bank Publications - Reports 34143, The World Bank Group.
    11. David E. Bloom & Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2022. "Modern Infectious Diseases: Macroeconomic Impacts and Policy Responses," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 85-131, March.
    12. Polyzos, Efstathios & Kuck, Simon & Abdulrahman, Khadija, 2022. "Demographic change and economic growth: The role of natural resources in the MENA region," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 1-13.
    13. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2019. "How Different are demographic impacts on trade openness by geographic region?:Findings from Europe,Asia,America,and Africa," Discussion Papers 1912, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    14. Lamar Crombach & Jeroen Smits, 2022. "The Demographic Window of Opportunity and Economic Growth at Sub-National Level in 91 Developing Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 161(1), pages 171-189, May.
    15. Ana L. ABELIANSKY & Eda ALGUR & David E. BLOOM & Klaus PRETTNER, 2020. "The future of work: Meeting the global challenges of demographic change and automation," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 159(3), pages 285-306, September.
    16. Alberto Bucci & Lorenzo Carbonari & Monia Ranalli & Giovanni Trovato, 2019. "Health and Development," CEIS Research Paper 470, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 24 Mar 2021.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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