Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change
The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "non-significant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined using contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor- force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.
|Date of creation:||1995|
|Publication status:||Published in DEMOGRAPHY, Vol. 32, 1995, pages 543-555|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Department of Economics Duke University 213 Social Sciences Building Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708-0097|
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