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Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change

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  • Kelley, Allen C.
  • Schmidt, Robert M.

Abstract

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "non-significant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined using contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor- force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelley, Allen C. & Schmidt, Robert M., 1995. "Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change," Working Papers 95-37, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:duk:dukeec:95-37
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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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