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Endogenous Childlessness and Stages of Development

Author

Listed:
  • Thomas Baudin
  • David de la Croix
  • Paula Gobbi

Abstract

Although developing countries are characterized by high average fertility rates, they are as concerned by childlessness as developed countries. Beyond natural sterility, there are two main types of childlessness: one driven by poverty and another by the high opportunity cost of child-rearing. We measure the importance of the components of childlessness with a structural model of fertility and marriage. Deep parameters are identified using census data from 36 developing countries. As average education increases, poverty-driven childlessness first decreases to a minimum, and then the opportunity-driven part of childlessness increases. We show that neglecting the endogenous response of marriage and childlessness may lead to a poor understanding of the impact that social progress, such as universal primary education, may have on completed fertility. The same holds for family planning, closing the gender pay gap, and the eradication of child mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix & Paula Gobbi, 2020. "Endogenous Childlessness and Stages of Development," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 83-133.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:jeurec:v:18:y:2020:i:1:p:83-133.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/jeea/jvy042
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    Cited by:

    1. Bethencourt, Carlos & Santos-Torres, Daniel, 2023. "Gender-role identity in adolescence and women fertility in adulthood," MPRA Paper 116321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Marie‐Louise Leroux & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "The optimal design of assisted reproductive technologies policies," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(7), pages 1454-1479, July.
    3. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    4. Juliana Jaramillo-Echeverri, 2024. "Understanding the relationship between women’s education and fertility decline: Evidence from Colombia," Cuadernos de Historia Económica 63, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Sunha Myong & JungJae Park & Junjian Yi, 2021. "Social Norms and Fertility," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(5), pages 2429-2466.
    6. Sandra Brée & David de la Croix, 2019. "Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 13(1), pages 25-54, January.
    7. Jie Zhang & Haoming Liu, 2023. "Differential fertility, school enrollment, and development," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2205-2240, October.
    8. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    9. Zainab Iftikhar, 2018. "The effect of norms on fertility and its implications for the quantity-quality trade-off in Pakistan," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2018014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    10. Hiller, Victor & Touré, Nouhoum, 2021. "Endogenous gender power: The two facets of empowerment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    11. Claudio Costanzo, 2025. "Robots, jobs, and optimal fertility timing," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(2), pages 1-33, June.
    12. Abad, Nicolas & Etner, Johanna & Raffin, Natacha & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2025. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    13. Florianne C. J. Verkroost & Christiaan W. S. Monden, 2022. "Childlessness and Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is There Evidence for a U-shaped Pattern?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 38(3), pages 319-352, August.
    14. Bhalotra, Sonia & Venkataramani, Atheendar & Walther, Selma, 2018. "Fertility and labor market responses to reductions in mortality," ISER Working Paper Series 2018-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    15. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2017. "Africa'S Prospects For Enjoying A Demographic Dividend," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(1), pages 63-76, March.
    16. Debora Di Gioacchino & Emanuela Ghignoni & Alina Verashchagina, 2019. "Le scelte di fertilit? e la durata della maternit? in Italia: vincoli economici e norme sociali," QUADERNI DI ECONOMIA DEL LAVORO, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2019(110), pages 93-110.
    17. Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Postponement, career development and fertility rebound," AMSE Working Papers 2225, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    18. John Kennes & John Knowles, 2024. "Unmarried Births: Accounting and Equilibrium Analysis"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 52, pages 84-109, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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