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Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Brée

    (LARHRA - LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA [2016-2019] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019], LARHRA APMU - Action publique et mondes urbains - LARHRA - LAboratoire de Recherche Historique Rhône-Alpes - UMR5190 - ENS de Lyon - École normale supérieure de Lyon - Université de Lyon - UL2 - Université Lumière - Lyon 2 - UJML - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 - Université de Lyon - Université de Lyon - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - UGA [2016-2019] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019])

  • David de La Croix

    (CORE - Department of Economics - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

Abstract

To better understand the forces underlying fertility decisions, we look at the forerunners of fertility decline. In Rouen, France, completed fertility dropped between 1640 and 1792 from 7.4 to 4.2 children. We review the list of possible explanations and keep only three: increase in materialism, women's empowerment and increase in returning to education. We propose a theory that shows that we can discriminate between these explanations by looking at childlessness and its social gradient. An increase in materialism or, under certain conditions, an increase in women's empowerment, leads to an increase in childlessness, while an increase in returning to education leads to a decrease in childlessness. Looking at the Rouen data, childlessness is clearly on the rise, from 4% in 1640 to 10% at the end of the 18th century, which appears to discredit the explanation based on increasing returns to education, at least for this period.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Brée & David de La Croix, 2017. "Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution," Post-Print halshs-01624694, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01624694
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-017-0166-9
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    Cited by:

    1. Bethencourt, Carlos & Santos-Torres, Daniel, 2023. "Gender-role identity in adolescence and women fertility in adulthood," MPRA Paper 116321, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2019. "Childlessness, celibacy and net fertility in pre-industrial England: the middle-class evolutionary advantage," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 223-256, September.
    3. David de La Croix & Paula E. Gobbi & Thomas Baudin, 2019. "Childlessness and Economic Development : A Survey," Post-Print hal-02615162, HAL.
    4. Perrin, Faustine, 2022. "Can the historical gender gap index deepen our understanding of economic development?," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 88(3), pages 379-417, September.
    5. David de la Croix & Eric B. Schneider & Jacob Weisdorf, 2017. ""Decessit sine prole" Childlessness, Celibacy, and Survival of the Richest in Pre-Industrial England," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2017001, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    6. David de la Croix & Mara Vitale, 2023. "Women in European academia before 1800—religion, marriage, and human capital," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(4), pages 506-532.
    7. Cédric Chambru & Paul Maneuvrier‐Hervieu, 2023. "The evolution of wages in early modern Normandy (1600–1850)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 917-940, August.
    8. Boonaert, Eva & Hoyweghen, Kaat Van & Feyisa, Ashenafi Duguma & Goos, Peter & Maertens, Miet, 2021. "Twofold Gendered Preferences in the Quantity-Quality Trade-Off Impact the Demographic Transition in Ethiopia," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315224, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Blanc, Guillaume & Wacziarg, Romain, 2020. "Change and persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730–1895," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Faustine Perrin, 2022. "On the origins of the demographic transition: rethinking the European marriage pattern," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 431-475, September.
    11. Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2020. "Childless Aristocrats. Inheritance and the Extensive Margin of Fertility," Working Papers ECARES 2020-03, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    12. Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2020. "Childless Aristocrats. Inheritance and the extensive margin of fertility," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/316217, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    13. Le Bris, David & Tallec, Ronan, 2021. "The European Marriage Pattern and its Positive Consequences Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660-1789," MPRA Paper 105324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Jianchoun Dou, 2021. "Variety, Fertility, and Long-term Economic Growth," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2021020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    15. Paula E Gobbi & Marc Goñi, 2021. "Childless Aristocrats: Inheritance and the Extensive Margin of Fertility," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(637), pages 2089-2118.
    16. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    17. David Bris & Ronan Tallec, 2023. "The European marriage pattern and the sensitivity of female age at marriage to economic context. Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660–1789," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 17(2), pages 187-231, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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