IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Bayraktar, Nihal
  • El Aynaoui, Karim

The authors develop a macroeconomic framework that captures links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty. Public investment is disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health, and affects both aggregate supply and demand. Dutch disease effects are captured by accounting for changes in the relative price of domestic goods. The authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by linking the model to a household survey. They calibrate the model for Ethiopia and simulate the changes in the allocation of aid and public investment. The authors also calculate the amount by which foreign aid should increase to reach the poverty targets of the Millennium Development Goals.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3490.

in new window

Date of creation: 01 Jan 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3490
Contact details of provider: Postal: 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, DC 20433
Phone: (202) 477-1234
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Benedict J. Clements & Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/249, International Monetary Fund.
  2. John Strauss & Duncan Thomas, 1998. "Health, Nutrition, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 766-817, June.
  3. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
  4. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
  5. Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 04/15, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
  7. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 2004. "Aid, policies, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3251, The World Bank.
  8. Gang, Ira N. & Ali Khan, Haider, 1990. "Foreign aid, taxes, and public investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 355-369, November.
  9. McGillivray, Mark, 2000. "Aid and Public Sector Behavior in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 156-63, June.
  10. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse, Mekonnen, 2003. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 87-106, January.
  11. Miguel Ramirez, 2000. "The impact of public investment on private investment spending in Latin America: 1980–95," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(2), pages 210-225, June.
  12. Khan, Haider Ali & Hoshino, Eiichi, 1992. "Impact of foreign aid on the fiscal behavior of LDC governments," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1481-1488, October.
  13. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "When is foreign aid policy credible? Aid dependence and conditionality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, February.
  14. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
  15. Santanu Chatterjee & Georgios Sakoulis & Stephen Turnovsky, 2000. "Unilateral Capital Transfers, Public Investment, and Economic Growth," Working Papers 0008, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  16. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2000. "Aid and Growth Regressions," MPRA Paper 62288, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Doucouliagos , H. & Paldam, M., 2007. "The aid effectiveness literature: The sad results of 40 years of research," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0773, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  18. P R Agénor, 2004. "The Macroeconomics of Poverty Reduction," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 43, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  19. Wang, Eric C., 2002. "Public infrastructure and economic growth: a new approach applied to East Asian economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 411-435, August.
  20. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The tyranny of concepts - CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated Investment Effort) is NOT capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2341, The World Bank.
  21. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
  22. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New Doubts: Revisiting "Aid, Policies, and Growth"," Working Papers 26, Center for Global Development.
  23. Marianna Belloc & Pietro Vertova, 2004. "How Does Public Investment Affect Economic Growth in HIPC? An Empirical Assessment," Department of Economics University of Siena 416, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
  24. Alexander Pivovarsky & Benedict J. Clements & Sanjeev Gupta & Erwin Tiongson, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Revenue Response: Does the Composition of Aid Matter?," IMF Working Papers 03/176, International Monetary Fund.
  25. Felix K. Rioja, 2003. "The Penalties of Inefficient Infrastructure," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 127-137, February.
  26. McGillivray, Mark & Ouattara, Bazoumana, 2003. "Aid, Debt Burden and Government Fiscal Behaviour: A New Model Applied to C.te d'Ivoire," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  27. G Mavrotas & B Ouattara, 2003. "The Composition of Aid and the Fiscal Sector in an Aid-Recipient Economy: A model," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0307, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  28. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, . "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
  29. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 4.
  31. Patrick GUILLAUMONT & Lisa CHAUVET, 1999. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Working Papers 199910, CERDI.
  32. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2003. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  33. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Blanca Sanchez-Robles, 1998. "Infrastructure Investment And Growth: Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 98-108, 01.
  35. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses," IMF Working Papers 04/49, International Monetary Fund.
  36. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding-out and crowding-in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, 01.
  37. Jung, Hong-Sang & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "The impact of public education expenditure on human capital, growth, and poverty in Tanzania and Zambia: a general equilibrium approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 701-725, November.
  38. repec:inr:wpaper:156232 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Morrissey, Oliver & Osei, Robert & Lloyd, Tim, 2002. "Modelling the fiscal effects of aid : an impulse response approach for Ghana," HWWA Discussion Papers 170, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  40. Hendricks, Lutz, . "Equipment Investment and Growth In Developing Countries," Working Papers 97/5, Arizona State University, Department of Economics.
  41. Don Webber, 2002. "Policies to stimulate growth: should we invest in health or education?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1633-1643.
  42. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 2002. "Macroeconomic adjustment and the poor : analytical issues and cross-country evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2788, The World Bank.
  43. Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci & Catherine A. Pattillo, 2002. "External Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 02/69, International Monetary Fund.
  44. Stifel, David C. & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "A dual-dual CGE model of an archetype African economy: trade reform, migration and poverty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 207-235, April.
  45. R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
  46. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
  47. Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability," Working Papers 200327, CERDI.
  48. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
  49. Howard White, 1993. "Aid and government: A dynamic model of aid, income and fiscal behaviour," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 305-312, 05.
  50. Miguel D. Ramirez & Nader Nazmi, 2003. "Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 115-126, February.
  51. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
  52. Habib Ahmed & Stephen M. Miller, 1999. "Crowding-Out and Crowding-In Effects of the Components of Government Expenditure," Working papers 1999-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  53. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-80, November.
  54. Gelan, Ayele, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and urban-rural linkages: a CGE analysis for Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 707-738, November.
  55. César Calderón & Luis Servén, 2002. "The Output Cost of Latin America’s Infrastructure Gap," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 186, Central Bank of Chile.
  56. Christopher S Adam & Stephen A O'Connell, 2004. "Aid versus Trade Revisited: Donor and Recipient Policies in the Presence of Learning-by-Doing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 150-173, 01.
  57. David Roodman, 2003. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-country Empirics—Revised July 2004," Working Papers 32, Center for Global Development.
  58. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
  59. Winters, L. Alan, 1984. "Separability and the specification of foreign trade functions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 239-263, November.
  60. George Mavrotas, 2002. "Foreign aid and fiscal response: Does aid disaggregation matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 534-559, September.
  61. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Aid, Export Promotion and the Real Exchange Rate: An African Dilemma?," CEPR Discussion Papers 88, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  62. Josué Pérez Toledo, 2003. "The Chilean Economy’s Capital Stock and Allocation by Sectors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 233, Central Bank of Chile.
  63. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
  64. Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2001. "Fiscal Policy and Private Investment in Less Developed Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Roula I. Yazigi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.