IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/3490.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction

Author

Listed:
  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard
  • Bayraktar, Nihal
  • El Aynaoui, Karim

Abstract

The authors develop a macroeconomic framework that captures links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty. Public investment is disaggregated into education, infrastructure, and health, and affects both aggregate supply and demand. Dutch disease effects are captured by accounting for changes in the relative price of domestic goods. The authors assess the impact of policy shocks on poverty by linking the model to a household survey. They calibrate the model for Ethiopia and simulate the changes in the allocation of aid and public investment. The authors also calculate the amount by which foreign aid should increase to reach the poverty targets of the Millennium Development Goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Bayraktar, Nihal & El Aynaoui, Karim, 2005. "Roads out of poverty? assessing the links between aid, public investment, growth, and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3490, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3490
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/WDSContentServer/WDSP/IB/2005/02/14/000112742_20050214154456/Rendered/PDF/wps3490.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Morrissey, Oliver & Osei, Robert & Lloyd, Tim, 2002. "Modelling the fiscal effects of aid: An impulse response approach for Ghana," HWWA Discussion Papers 170, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    2. John Strauss & Duncan Thomas, 1998. "Health, Nutrition, and Economic Development," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 766-817, June.
    3. Charles R. Hulten, 1996. "Infrastructure Capital and Economic Growth: How Well You Use It May Be More Important Than How Much You Have," NBER Working Papers 5847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. H. Ahmed & SM. Miller, 2000. "Crowding‐out and crowding‐in effects of the components of government expenditure," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(1), pages 124-133, January.
    5. Don Webber, 2002. "Policies to stimulate growth: should we invest in health or education?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(13), pages 1633-1643.
    6. Torvik, Ragnar, 2001. "Learning by doing and the Dutch disease," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 285-306, February.
    7. P. Guillaumont & L. Chauvet, 2001. "Aid and Performance: A Reassessment," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 66-92.
    8. Howard White, 1993. "Aid and government: A dynamic model of aid, income and fiscal behaviour," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 305-312, May.
    9. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2005. "The Macroeconomics Of Poverty Reduction," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 73(4), pages 369-434, July.
    10. Pierre‐Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross‐Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 351-408, July.
    11. R. Lensink & H. White, 2001. "Are There Negative Returns to Aid?," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 42-65.
    12. C-J. Dalgaard & H. Hansen, 2001. "On Aid, Growth and Good Policies," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 17-41.
    13. David Dollar & Craig Burnside, 2000. "Aid, Policies, and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 847-868, September.
    14. Hristos Doucouliagos & Martin Paldam, 2009. "The Aid Effectiveness Literature: The Sad Results Of 40 Years Of Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(3), pages 433-461, July.
    15. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Miguel Ramirez, 2000. "The impact of public investment on private investment spending in Latin America: 1980–95," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(2), pages 210-225, June.
    17. Luc Christiaensen & Lionel Demery & Stefano Paternostro, 2003. "Macro and Micro Perspectives of Growth and Poverty in Africa," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 17(3), pages 317-347, December.
    18. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
    19. Svensson, Jakob, 2000. "When is foreign aid policy credible? Aid dependence and conditionality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 61-84, February.
    20. Era Dabla-Norris & John M. Matoovu & Paul Wade, 2002. "Debt Relief, Demand for Education, and Poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-52, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. McGillivray, Mark, 2000. "Aid and Public Sector Behavior in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 156-163, June.
    22. Hendricks, Lutz, 2000. "Equipment investment and growth in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 335-364, April.
    23. Miguel D. Ramirez & Nader Nazmi, 2003. "Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 115-126, February.
    24. Blanca Sanchez‐Robles, 1998. "Infrastructure Investment And Growth: Some Empirical Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 98-108, January.
    25. Hansen, Henrik & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Aid and growth regressions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 547-570, April.
    26. Pierre‐Richard Agénor & Nihal Bayraktar & Emmanuel Pinto Moreira & Karim El Aynaoui, 2006. "Achieving the Millennium Development Goals in Sub‐Saharan Africa: A Macroeconomic Monitoring Framework," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(11), pages 1519-1547, November.
    27. AGENOR Pierre-Richard & IZQUIERDO Alejandro & FOFACK Hippolyte, 2010. "IMMPA: A Quantitative Macroeconomic Framework for the Analysis of Poverty Reduction Strategies," EcoMod2003 330700003, EcoMod.
    28. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2008. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 643-665, November.
    29. Khan, Haider Ali & Hoshino, Eiichi, 1992. "Impact of foreign aid on the fiscal behavior of LDC governments," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 1481-1488, October.
    30. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    31. L Alan Winters, 2015. "Separability And The Specification Of Foreign Trade Functions," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Non-Tariff Barriers, Regionalism and Poverty Essays in Applied International Trade Analysis, chapter 8, pages 149-173, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    32. Ale Bulir & A. Javier Hamann, 2003. "Aid Volatility: An Empirical Assessment," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 1-4.
    33. Corden, W M, 1984. "Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 359-380, November.
    34. Mr. Alexander Pivovarsky & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Mr. Erwin H Tiongson, 2003. "Foreign Aid and Revenue Response: Does the Composition of Aid Matter?," IMF Working Papers 2003/176, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Ms. Mwanza Nkusu, 2004. "Aid and the Dutch Disease in Low-Income Countries: Informed Diagnoses for Prudent Prognoses," IMF Working Papers 2004/049, International Monetary Fund.
    36. Wang, Eric C., 2002. "Public infrastructure and economic growth: a new approach applied to East Asian economies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 411-435, August.
    37. Josué Pérez Toledo, 2003. "The Chilean Economy’s Capital Stock and Allocation by Sectors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 233, Central Bank of Chile.
    38. Chatterjee, Santanu & Sakoulis, Georgios & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2003. "Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1077-1103, December.
    39. Bigsten, Arne & Kebede, Bereket & Shimeles, Abebe & Taddesse, Mekonnen, 2003. "Growth and Poverty Reduction in Ethiopia: Evidence from Household Panel Surveys," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 87-106, January.
    40. G Mavrotas & B Ouattara, 2003. "The Composition of Aid and the Fiscal Sector in an Aid-Recipient Economy: A model," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0307, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    41. Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2001. "Fiscal Policy and Private Investment in Less Developed Countries," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-32, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    42. Christopher S Adam & Stephen A O'Connell, 2004. "Aid versus Trade Revisited: Donor and Recipient Policies in the Presence of Learning-by-Doing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(492), pages 150-173, January.
    43. George Mavrotas, 2002. "Foreign aid and fiscal response: Does aid disaggregation matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 138(3), pages 534-559, September.
    44. Felix K. Rioja, 2003. "The Penalties of Inefficient Infrastructure," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(1), pages 127-137, February.
    45. Burnside, Craig & Dollar, David, 2004. "Aid, policies, and growth : revisiting the evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3251, The World Bank.
    46. Gelan, Ayele, 2002. "Trade liberalisation and urban-rural linkages: a CGE analysis for Ethiopia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 24(7-8), pages 707-738, November.
    47. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    48. Christopher S. Adam & David L. Bevan, 2003. "Aid, Public Expenditure and Dutch Disease," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-02, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    49. Marianna Belloc & Pietro Vertova, 2004. "How Does Public Investment Affect Economic Growth in HIPC? An Empirical Assessment," Department of Economics University of Siena 416, Department of Economics, University of Siena.
    50. Jung, Hong-Sang & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "The impact of public education expenditure on human capital, growth, and poverty in Tanzania and Zambia: a general equilibrium approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 701-725, November.
    51. Mark McGillivray & Bazoumana Ouattara, 2003. "Aid, Debt Burden and Government Fiscal Behaviour: A New Model Applied to Côte d'Ivoire," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-33, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    52. Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "The Tyranny of Concepts: CUDIE (Cumulated, Depreciated, Investment Effort) Is Not Capital," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, December.
    53. Trish Kelly, 1997. "Public Investment and Growth: testing the non-linearity hypothesis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 249-262.
    54. Rasmus Heltberg, 2002. "The Poverty Elasticity of Growth," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-21, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    55. Lisa CHAUVET & Patrick GUILLAUMONT, 2003. "Aid and Growth Revisited: Policy, Economic Vulnerability and Political Instability," Working Papers 200327, CERDI.
    56. Bulír, Ales & Hamann, A. Javier, 2008. "Volatility of Development Aid: From the Frying Pan into the Fire?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2048-2066, October.
    57. van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1985. "Aid, Export Promotion and the Real Exchange Rate: An African Dilemma?," CEPR Discussion Papers 88, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    58. Toan Quoc Nguyen & Mr. Benedict J. Clements & Ms. Rina Bhattacharya, 2003. "External Debt, Public Investment, and Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2003/249, International Monetary Fund.
    59. David Roodman, 2003. "The Anarchy of Numbers: Aid, Development, and Cross-country Empirics—Revised July 2004," Working Papers 32, Center for Global Development.
    60. Gang, Ira N. & Ali Khan, Haider, 1990. "Foreign aid, taxes, and public investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 355-369, November.
    61. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Chen, Derek H.C. & Grimm, Michael, 2004. "Linking representative household models with household surveys for poverty analysis : a comparison of alternative methodologies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3343, The World Bank.
    62. Mark McGillivray & Oliver Morrissey, 2001. "Fiscal Effects of Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2001-61, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    63. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2004. "Macroeconomic Adjustment and the Poor: Analytical Issues and Cross-Country Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18, pages 351-408, July.
    64. Lachler, Ulrich & Aschauer, David Alan, 1998. "Public investment and economic growth in Mexico," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1964, The World Bank.
    65. Ms. Hélène Poirson & Mr. Luca A Ricci & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo, 2004. "What Are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2004/015, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Stifel, David C. & Thorbecke, Erik, 2003. "A dual-dual CGE model of an archetype African economy: trade reform, migration and poverty," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 207-235, April.
    67. Santanu Chatterjee & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2005. "Financing Public Investment through Foreign Aid: Consequences for Economic Growth and Welfare," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 20-44, February.
    68. Demetriades, Panicos O & Mamuneas, Theofanis P, 2000. "Intertemporal Output and Employment Effects of Public Infrastructure Capital: Evidence from 12 OECD Economics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 687-712, July.
    69. Hulya Dagdeviren & Rolph Van Der Hoeven & John Weeks, 2002. "Poverty Reduction with Growth and Redistribution," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 33(3), pages 383-413, June.
    70. Mark McGillivray, 2000. "Aid and Public Sector Behavior in Developing Countries," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(2), pages 156-163, June.
    71. William Easterly & Ross Levine & David Roodman, 2003. "New Data, New Doubts: Revisiting "Aid, Policies, and Growth"," Working Papers 26, Center for Global Development.
    72. César Calderón & Luis Servén, 2002. "The Output Cost of Latin America’s Infrastructure Gap," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 186, Central Bank of Chile.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. World Bank, 2007. "Niger - Accelerating Growth and Achieving the Millennium Development Goals : Diagnosis and the Policy Agenda," World Bank Publications - Reports 7658, The World Bank Group.
    2. Feeny, Simon, 2007. "Foreign Aid and Fiscal Governance in Melanesia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 439-453, March.
    3. Tony Addison & George Mavrotas & Mark McGillivray, 2005. "Development assistance and development finance: evidence and global policy agendas," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(6), pages 819-836.
    4. Tony Addison & George Mavrotas & Mark McGillivray, 2005. "Aid, Debt Relief and New Sources of Finance for Meeting the Millennium Development Goals," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-09, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Dalgaard, Carl-Johan, 2008. "Donor policy rules and aid effectiveness," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1895-1920, June.
    6. Mark McGillivray, 2003. "Efficacité de l'aide et sélectivité : vers un concept élargi," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 11(4), pages 43-62.
    7. Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Aid and Conditionality," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4415-4523, Elsevier.
    8. Yongzheng Yang & Mr. Robert Powell & Mr. Sanjeev Gupta, 2005. "The Macroeconomic Challenges of Scaling Up Aid to Africa," IMF Working Papers 2005/179, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Almuth Scholl, 2009. "Aid Effectiveness and Limited Enforceable Conditionality," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 377-391, April.
    10. Pinto Moreira, Emmanuel & Bayraktar, Nihal, 2008. "Foreign aid, growth and poverty: A policy framework for Niger," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 523-539.
    11. Ralf Hepp, 2005. "Health Expenditures Under the HIPC Debt Initiative," International Finance 0510005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Ralf Hepp, 2005. "Can Debt Relief Buy Growth?," International Finance 0510003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Feeny, Simon & de Silva, Ashton, 2012. "Measuring absorptive capacity constraints to foreign aid," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 725-733.
    14. Museru, Malimu & Toerien, Francois & Gossel, Sean, 2014. "The Impact of Aid and Public Investment Volatility on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 138-147.
    15. Mark McGillivray, 2003. "Aid Effectiveness and Selectivity: Integrating Multiple Objectives into Aid Allocations," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2003-71, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    16. Bah, El-hadj M. & Ward, Jeremy, 2011. "Effectiveness of foreign aid in Small Island Developing States," MPRA Paper 32062, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. George Mavrotas, 2009. "Introduction: Development Aid-Theory, Policies, and Performance," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(s1), pages 373-381, August.
    18. Bazoumana Ouattara & Eric Strobl, 2008. "Aid, Policy and Growth: Does Aid Modality Matter?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(2), pages 347-365, July.
    19. Mark McGillivray & Simon Feeny & Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2005. "It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But that Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy Over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-54, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Tony Addison & George Mavrotas & Mark McGillivray, 2005. "Aid to Africa: an unfinished agenda," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(8), pages 989-1001.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Decentralization; Economic Theory&Research; Labor Policies; Environmental Economics&Policies; Payment Systems&Infrastructure; Inequality; Environmental Economics&Policies; Economic Theory&Research; Economic Stabilization; Banks&Banking Reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Roula I. Yazigi (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dvewbus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.