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Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan

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  • Choudhry, Misbah T.
  • Elhorst, J. Paul

Abstract

The authors of this paper adopt a Solow-Swan model extended to include demographic variables to analyze the overall effect of demographic transition on economic growth. The results, based on data from seventy countries over the period 1961-2003, reveal that GDP per capita growth is positively related to the growth differential between the working-age population and the total population, and negatively related to child and old-age dependency ratios. Based on these results, they find that population dynamics explain 46 percent of economic growth in per capita GDP in China over the period 1961-2003, 39 percent in India, and 25 percent in Pakistan. Furthermore, population dynamics are expected to have a positive effect on economic growth in India and Pakistan over the period 2005-2050, and a negative effect in China.

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  • Choudhry, Misbah T. & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 218-236, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:34:y:2010:i:3:p:218-236
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    3. Laishram Ladusingh & M.R. Narayana, 2012. "Demographic dividends for India: evidence and implications based on National Transfer Accounts," Chapters, in: Donghyun Park & Sang-Hyop Lee & Andrew Mason (ed.), Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 7, pages 203-230, Edward Elgar Publishing.
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    9. Vide Romana Korez & Zavrl Irena & Hunjet Anica, 2021. "Exploring Emerging Markets’ Demographic and Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Middle Class Growth: The Case of China and India," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 67(4), pages 33-55, December.
    10. Yaobo Shi & Chun-Ping Chang & Chyi-Lu Jang & Yu Hao, 2018. "Does economic performance affect officials’ turnover? Evidence from municipal government leaders in China," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1873-1891, July.
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    14. Ge Wang & Juan Yang & Dinghua Ou & Yalan Xiong & Ouping Deng & Qiquan Li, 2019. "Temporal-Spatial Variations and Regional Disparities in Land-Use Efficiency, and the Response to Demographic Transition," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(17), pages 1-22, August.
    15. Bjorvatn, Kjetil & Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2013. "Demographic Transition in Resource Rich Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 337-351.
    16. Paul Elhorst & Diego Firmino Costa da Silva & Raul da Mota Silveira Neto, 2015. "A Spatial Economic Model and Spatial Econometric Analysis of Population Dynamics in Brazilian MCAs," ERSA conference papers ersa15p83, European Regional Science Association.
    17. M. R. Narayana, 2018. "Accounting for Growth Effects of Age Structure Transition through Public Education Expenditure: New Macroeconomic Evidence from India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(2), pages 174-211, December.
    18. Abdullah Abdulaziz A. Bawazir & Mohamed Aslam & Ahmad Farid Bin Osman, 2020. "Demographic change and economic growth: empirical evidence from the Middle East," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 429-450, August.
    19. Donatella Saccone, 2017. "Economic growth in emerging economies: what, who and why," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(11), pages 800-803, June.
    20. Valli Vittorio & Saccone Donatella, 2011. "Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 201105, University of Turin.
    21. Aurora A. C. Teixeira & N. Renuga Nagarajan & Sandra T. Silva, 2017. "The Impact of Ageing and the Speed of Ageing on the Economic Growth of Least Developed, Emerging and Developed Countries, 1990–2013," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 909-934, August.
    22. M. Narayana, 2015. "India’s Age Structure Transition, Sectoral Labor Productivities, and Economic Growth: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(3), pages 381-415, June.
    23. N. Renuga Nagarajan & Aurora A. C. Teixeira & Sandra T. Silva, 2021. "Ageing Population: Identifying the Determinants of Ageing in the Least Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 40(2), pages 187-210, April.
    24. Gindra Kasnauskiene & Karol Michnevic, 2017. "Contribution of increased life expectancy to economic growth: evidence from CEE countries," International Journal of Economic Sciences, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 6(2), pages 82-99, November.
    25. Chaurasia, Aalok Ranjan, 2020. "Economic Growth and Population Transition inChina and India 1990-2018," MPRA Paper 101130, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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