Economic development and population growth: an inverted-U shaped curve?
There has been a large debate on the relations between demography and economic development. Our paper discusses the possibility that there exists an inverted-U curve, similar in shape to Kuznets’s curve, between the growth rate of population and the growth rate of the per-capita GDP. The cross-country empirical analysis, carried out on over 90 countries in the period 1980-2010, seems to confirm the existence of this kind of curve. The main reasons behind this phenomenon are discussed. First, it is difficult to sustain a high economic growth either with a low (lower than 0.5%) or high (higher than 2-2.5%) growth rate of population. In the first case, an excessive ageing of population causes the well-known negative consequences. In the second case, the possibilities of large households of providing children with adequate nourishment, education and health are reduced. Moreover, without a perfect capital market, it is difficult to promote new firms and innovation unless adequate personal or family resources are available
|Date of creation:||Jun 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Lungo Dora Siena 100, I-10153 Torino|
Phone: +39 011670 4406
Fax: +39 011670 3895
Web page: http://www.unito.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Allen Kelley & Robert Schmidt, 2005. "Evolution of recent economic-demographic modeling: A synthesis," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 275-300, 06.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
NBER Working Papers
6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-55, September.
- James A. Brander & Steve Dowrick, 1993.
"The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical ResultsFrom Aggregate Cross-National Data,"
NBER Working Papers
4270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brander, James A & Dowrick, Steve, 1994. "The Role of Fertility and Population in Economic Growth: Empirical Results from Aggregate Cross-National Data," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Azomahou, Théophile & Mishra, Tapas, 2008.
"Age dynamics and economic growth: Revisiting the nexus in a nonparametric setting,"
Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 67-71, April.
- Théophile Azomahou & Tapas Mishra, 2006. "Age Dynamics and Economic Growth: Revisiting the Nexus in a Nonparametric Setting," Working Papers of BETA 2006-36, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
- repec:gdm:wpaper:4108 is not listed on IDEAS
- Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2011.
"Life expectancy and economic growth: The role of the demographic transition,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
20078, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Matteo Cervellati & Uwe Sunde, 2011. "Life expectancy and economic growth: the role of the demographic transition," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 99-133, June.
- Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition," IZA Discussion Papers 4160, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Cervellati, Matteo & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Life Expectancy and Economic Growth: The Role of the Demographic Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 7361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Choudhry, Misbah T. & Elhorst, J. Paul, 2010. "Demographic transition and economic growth in China, India and Pakistan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 218-236, September.
- Kelley, Allen C, 1988. "Economic Consequences of Population Change in the Third World," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 1685-1728, December.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010.
"A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010,"
NBER Working Papers
15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
- Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uto:dipeco:201105. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Piero Cavaleri)or (Marina Grazioli)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.