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The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates


  • Miguel Sánchez-Romero



Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and “convergence models” differ in their assessment of the extent to which demography influences economic growth. Here, I show that CGE models produce results similar to those of convergence models when more detailed demographic information is used. To do so, I implement a CGE model to explain Taiwan’s economic miracle during the period 1965–2005. I find that Taiwan’s demographic transition accounts for 22 % of per capita output growth and 17.7 % of investment rate for the period 1965–2005. Moreover, this paper confirms most of the literature written on the role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates since the seminar article by Coale and Hoover ( 1958 ). Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Miguel Sánchez-Romero, 2013. "The role of demography on per capita output growth and saving rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1347-1377, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:26:y:2013:i:4:p:1347-1377
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-012-0447-3

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2013. "Demographic Dividends Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 9390, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Gerlagh, Reyer & Jaimes, Richard & Motavasseli, Ali, 2017. "Global demographic change and climate policies," Discussion Paper 2017-035, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    3. Nick Parr & Ross Guest, 2014. "A method for socially evaluating the effects of long-run demographic paths on living standards," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(11), pages 275-318, July.
    4. Lee, R., 2016. "Macroeconomics, Aging, and Growth," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, Elsevier.
    5. repec:spr:jopoec:v:31:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s00148-017-0654-z is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Lucilla Maria Bruni & Jamele Rigolini & Sara Troiano, 2016. "Forever Young?," World Bank Other Operational Studies 24996, The World Bank.
    7. Gemma Abio Roig & Concepció Patxot Cardoner & Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Guadalupe Souto Nieves, 2015. "The Welfare State and the demographic dividend: A cross-country comparison," UB Economics Working Papers 2015/332, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB Economics.
    8. Miguel Sánchez Romero & Naohiro Ogawa & Rikiya Matsukura, 2013. "To give or not to give: bequest estimate and wealth impact based on a CGE model with realistic demography in Japan," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2013-012, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item


    Demography; Saving rates; Investment rates; Income growth; Overlapping generations; D58; E21; J11;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General


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