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Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change

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  • Jochen Mierau
  • Stephen Turnovsky

Abstract

We develop a neoclassical growth model having a realistic demographic structure. We identify the critical channel of impact to be the intertemporal consumption allocation decision through the “generational turnover term”. Expressing the aggregate dynamics as a generalization of the conventional neoclassical growth model provides important insights, enabling us to view in a unified way how alternative demographic structures impinge on the macrodynamic equilibrium. Using an approximation to the generational turnover term, we are able to characterize both the steady state and the local transitional dynamics. Through numerical simulations, we analyze the steady state as well as the transitional effects of structural and demographic changes. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014

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  • Jochen Mierau & Stephen Turnovsky, 2014. "Capital accumulation and the sources of demographic change," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(3), pages 857-894, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:27:y:2014:i:3:p:857-894
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-013-0479-3
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    2. Theresa Grafeneder-Weissteiner & Klaus Prettner & Jens Südekum, 2020. "Three Pillars of Urbanization: Migration, Aging, and Growth," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 259-278, June.
    3. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2015. "Population Structure and Consumption Growth: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts," VID Working Papers 1503, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    4. Bruce, Neil & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2013. "Social security, growth, and welfare in overlapping generations economies with or without annuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 12-24.
    5. d’Albis, Hippolyte & Augeraud-Véron, Emmanuelle & Hupkes, Hermen Jan, 2015. "Local determinacy of prices in an overlapping generations model with continuous trading," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 16-24.
    6. Ivan Frankovic & Michael Kuhn & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2016. "Medical Care within an OLG Economy with Realistic Demography," VID Working Papers 1603, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Bloom, David E. & Kuhn, Michael & Prettner, Klaus, 2018. "Health and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 11939, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Frankovic, Ivan & Kuhn, Michael & Wrzaczek, Stefan, 2020. "Medical innovation and its diffusion: Implications for economic performance and welfare," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "On the role of small models in macrodynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1605-1613, September.
    10. Ivan Frankovic & Michael Kuhn & Stefan Wrzaczek, 2020. "On the Anatomy of Medical Progress Within an Overlapping Generations Economy," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(2), pages 215-257, June.
    11. Michael Kuhn & Klaus Prettner, 2018. "Population age structure and consumption growth: evidence from National Transfer Accounts," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 135-153, January.
    12. Karel Brůna & Jiří Pour, 2023. "Population aging and structural over/underinvestment," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2339-2383, August.
    13. Jochen Mierau & Stephen Turnovsky, 2014. "Demography, growth, and inequality," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 55(1), pages 29-68, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demography; Growth; Overlapping generations; C62; D91; E13; J10;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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