IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ehl/lserod/66496.html

Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Lanz, Bruno
  • Dietz, Simon
  • Swanson, Tim

Abstract

We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

Suggested Citation

  • Lanz, Bruno & Dietz, Simon & Swanson, Tim, 2017. "Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66496, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:66496
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/66496/
    File Function: Open access version.
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Will global population level off soon?
      by nawmsayn in ZeeConomics on 2014-09-06 02:02:01

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brausmann, Alexandra & Bretschger, Lucas, 2018. "Economic development on a finite planet with stochastic soil degradation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 1-19.
    2. Maryia Mandryk & Jonathan Doelman & Elke Stehfest, 2015. "Assessment of global land availability: land supply for agriculture," FOODSECURE Technical papers 7, LEI Wageningen UR.
    3. Lehmann-Hasemeyer, Sibylle & Prettner, Klaus & Tscheuschner, Paul, 2023. "The scientific revolution and its implications for long-run economic development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Pedro Naso; Ozgun Haznedar; Bruno Lanz; Timothy Swanson, 2021. "Food Security in the Long-Run:A Macroeconomic Approach to Land Use Policy," CIES Research Paper series 71-2021, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    5. Peretto, Pietro & Valente, Simone, 2024. "Sustainable Growth and Secular Trends," MPRA Paper 120828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Tim Swanson, 2018. "Global Economic Growth and Agricultural Land Conversion under Uncertain Productivity Improvements in Agriculture," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(2), pages 545-569.
    7. Bretschger, Lucas, 2020. "Malthus in the light of climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    8. Naso, Pedro & Lanz, Bruno & Swanson, Tim, 2020. "The return of Malthus? Resource constraints in an era of declining population growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    9. Lanz, Bruno & Dietz, Simon & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "The Expansion of Modern Agriculture and Global Biodiversity Decline: An Integrated Assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 260-277.
    10. Lupi, Veronica & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated climate-economy-demography model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    11. Naso, Pedro & Haznedar, Ozgun & Lanz, Bruno & Swanson, Tim, 2022. "A macroeconomic approach to global land use policy," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    12. Kruse-Andersen, Peter Kjær, 2023. "Directed technical change, environmental sustainability, and population growth," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    13. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2020. "Twenty Key Challenges in Environmental and Resource Economics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 77(4), pages 725-750, December.
    14. Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Morris, Jennifer F. & Babiker, Mustafa H., 2016. "Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 867-883.
    15. Bretschger, Lucas, 2024. "Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    16. Peter K. Kruse-Andersen, 2019. "Directed Technical Change, Environmental Sustainability, and Population Growth," Discussion Papers 19-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    17. Bretschger, Lucas, 2024. "Energy transition and climate change abatement: A macroeconomic analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    18. Mário Santiago Céu & Raquel Medeiros Gaspar, 2022. "Vegetative cycle and bankruptcy predictors of agricultural firms," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 68(12), pages 445-454.
    19. Lucas Bretschger & Karen Pittel, 2019. "Twenty Key Questions in Environmental and Resource Economics," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/328, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    20. Jin, Zhangfeng & Pan, Shiyuan & Zheng, Zhijie, 2021. "The Unintended Consequences of Relaxing Birth Quotas: Theory and Evidence," GLO Discussion Paper Series 819, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    21. Cuiying Li & Yulin Wu & Yi Cheng & Yandong Guo & Kun Wei & Jie Zhao, 2025. "Reconstruction and Prediction of Regional Population Migration Neural Network Model with Age Structure," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-16, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:66496. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: LSERO Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.