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Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated climate-economy-demography model

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  • Lupi, Veronica
  • Marsiglio, Simone

Abstract

We explore the bidirectional relationship between population growth and climate change: while population determines carbon emissions which drive climate change, climate change impacts the mortality rate and so population growth. Such population-climate feedback effects suggest that demographic policy may represent an alternative to traditional mitigation policies. We explore this possibility by introducing a population policy aiming at imposing a cap on population growth into an extended global integrated assessment model of climate-economy with endogenous fertility choices and temperature-related mortality. We show that the social costs of environmental policies, as reflected by both the social cost of carbon and social welfare, substantially increase by accounting for endogenous population change, but demographic policy allows to significantly reduce such costs. This clearly suggests that population growth does matter and so population policy may represent an effective mitigation tool to complement standard climate policies.

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  • Lupi, Veronica & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated climate-economy-demography model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:184:y:2021:i:c:s0921800921000690
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107011
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ghazala Aziz & Rida Waheed & Suleman Sarwar & Mohd Saeed Khan, 2022. "The Significance of Governance Indicators to Achieve Carbon Neutrality: A New Insight of Life Expectancy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-20, December.
    3. Ekaterina Matus & Olga Sukhova & Ilyas Ismagilov & Mikhail Kerzhentsev & Olga Stonkus & Zinfer Ismagilov, 2021. "Hydrogen Production through Autothermal Reforming of Ethanol: Enhancement of Ni Catalyst Performance via Promotion," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-16, August.
    4. Shang, Yunfeng & Lian, Yi & Chen, Hui & Qian, Fangbin, 2023. "The impacts of energy resource and tourism on green growth: Evidence from Asian economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    5. Richard S.J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have not changed over time," Working Paper Series 0821, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    6. Natalia Iwaszczuk & Jacek Wolak & Aleksander Iwaszczuk, 2021. "Turkmenistan’s Gas Sector Development Scenarios Based on Econometric and SWOT Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-18, May.
    7. Sandra Cunha & Antonella Sarcinella & José Aguiar & Mariaenrica Frigione, 2023. "Perspective on the Development of Energy Storage Technology Using Phase Change Materials in the Construction Industry: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-32, June.
    8. Richard S. J. Tol, 2021. "Estimates of the social cost of carbon have increased over time," Papers 2105.03656, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate Change; Population Growth; Population Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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