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Non-Monotonicity of Fertility in Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth

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  • Spyridon Boikos

    (University of Milan.)

  • Alberto Bucci

    (University of Milan.)

  • Thanasis Stengos

    (University of Guelph.)

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between per-capita human capital investment and the birth rate. Since the consequences of higher fertility (birth rate) on per-capita human capital accumulation (the so-called dilution effect) are not the same (in sign and magnitude) across different groups of countries with different birth rates, we analyze the growth impact of a non-linear dilution-effect. The main predictions of the model (concerning the relationship between population and economic growth rates) are then compared with those of a standard model in which the exogenous birth rate affects linearly and negatively (as postulated by most of the existing theoretical literature) human capital investment at the individual level. By using non-parametric techniques, we find evidence of strong nonlinearities in the total effect of fertility on human capital accumulation. This supports the idea that fertility plays a non-monotonic role in the accumulation of human capital and hence in the growth rate of an economy. The non-monotonic effect of fertility on human capital appears to be valid for OECD, as well as non-OECD countries according to our empirical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Spyridon Boikos & Alberto Bucci & Thanasis Stengos, 2012. "Non-Monotonicity of Fertility in Human Capital Accumulation and Economic Growth," Working Papers 1213, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    • Handle: RePEc:gue:guelph:2012-13.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boikos, Spyridon & Bucci, Alberto & Stengos, Thanasis, 2013. "Non-monotonicity of fertility in human capital accumulation and economic growth," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 44-59.
    2. Diwakar Bharat & Sorek Gilad, 2017. "Human-capital spillover, population and R&D-based growth," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Bucci, Alberto & Eraydın, Levent & Müller, Moritz, 2019. "Dilution effects, population growth and economic growth under human capital accumulation and endogenous technological change," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Gilad Sorek & Bharat Diwakar, 2017. "Weak Scale Effects in Overlapping Generations Economy," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 962-969.
    5. Bucci Alberto & Raurich Xavier, 2017. "Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 182-211, May.
    6. Simone Marsiglio, 2017. "A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility and environmental concern," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 64(3), pages 263-282, July.
    7. Marsiglio, Simone, 2014. "Reassessing Edgeworth’s conjecture when population dynamics is stochastic," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 130-140.
    8. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Dynastic Altruism, Population Growth, and Economic Prosperity," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    9. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Life-Cycle Saving, Bequests, and the Role of Population in R&D-based Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-05, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    10. Prettner, Klaus, 2016. "The implications of automation for economic growth and the labor share of income," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2016, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    11. Horst Feldmann, 2016. "The Long Shadows of Spanish and French Colonial Education," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(1), pages 32-64, February.
    12. Moraes, Ricardo Kalil & Wanke, Peter Fernandes & Faria, João Ricardo, 2021. "Unveiling the endogeneity between social-welfare and labor efficiency: Two-stage NDEA neural network approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    13. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Dynastic Altruism, Population, and R&D based Growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2003-2009.
    14. Kasuga, Hidefumi & Morita, Yuichi, 2022. "The health gap and its effect on economic outcomes," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    15. Bharat Diwakar & Gilad Sorek, 2016. "Human-Capital Spillover, Population, and Economic Growth," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2016-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    16. Tao Tang & Brayan Tillaguango & Rafael Alvarado & Ximena Songor-Jaramillo & Priscila Méndez & Stefania Pinzón, 2022. "Heterogeneity in the Causal Link between FDI, Globalization and Human Capital: New Empirical Evidence Using Threshold Regressions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-27, July.
    17. Lupi, Veronica & Marsiglio, Simone, 2021. "Population growth and climate change: A dynamic integrated climate-economy-demography model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Prettner, Klaus & Werner, Katharina, 2016. "Why it pays off to pay us well: The impact of basic research on economic growth and welfare," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 1075-1090.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Population Growth; Economic Growth; Human Capital Investment; Dilution Effects.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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