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R&D-based Growth in the Post-modern Era

  • Holger Strulik

    ()

  • Klaus Prettner

    ()

    (Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies)

  • Alexia Prskawetz

    ()

    (Vienna Institute of Demography)

Conventional R&D-based growth theory suggests that productivity growth is positively correlated with population size or population growth, an implication which is hard to see in the data. Here we integrate R&D-based growth into a unified growth setup with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. We then show how a Beckerian child quality-quantity trade-off explains why higher growth of productivity and income per capita are associated with lower population growth. The medium-run prospects for future economic growth - when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries - are thus much better than predicted by conventional R&D-based growth theory.

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File URL: http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/WorkingPapers/2011/PGDA_WP_74.pdf
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Paper provided by Program on the Global Demography of Aging in its series PGDA Working Papers with number 7411.

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Date of creation: Aug 2011
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Handle: RePEc:gdm:wpaper:7411
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