The Fertility Transition Around the World - 1950-2005
In this paper we analyze the distribution of fertility rates across the world using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world's countries in two distinct components: a high-fertility regime and a low fertility regime. Whereas the significance of twin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to exists over the whole observation period. In 1950 about two thirds of the world's countries belonged to the high-fertility regime and the rest constituted the low-fertility regime. By the year 2005 this picture has reversed. Within both the low- and the high-fertility regime the average fertility rate declined, with a larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime. Visually, the two peaks moved closer together. For the low fertility-group we find both ?- and ?- convergence but we cannot establish any convergence pattern for the high fertility regime. Overall our findings are difficult to reconcile with the standard view of a fertility trap but they support the differentiated take-off view established in the Unified Growth literature.
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.ael.ethz.ch/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Galor, Oded, 1996.
"Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1350, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pritchett, Lant, 1995.
"Divergence, big time,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
1522, The World Bank.
- Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
- Charles I. Jones, .
"On the Evolution of the World Income Distribution,"
97009, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
- Oded Galor, 2004.
"From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory,"
GE, Growth, Math methods
- Kraay, Aart & Raddatz, Claudio, 2005.
"Poverty traps, aid, and growth,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3631, The World Bank.
- Costas Azariadis, 1996.
"The Economics of Poverty Traps Part One: Complete Markets,"
9606, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Azariadis, Costas, 1996. "The Economics of Poverty Traps: Part One: Complete Markets," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 449-96, December.
- Oded Galor, 2005.
"Unified Growth Theory,"
Development and Comp Systems
- Baumol, William J, 1986. "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: What the Long-run Data Show," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(5), pages 1072-85, December.
- Quah, Danny T., 1996. "Empirics for economic growth and convergence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 1353-1375, June.
- Holger Strulik & Jacob Weisdorf, 2008. "Population, food, and knowledge: a simple unified growth theory," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 195-216, September.
- Kogel, Tomas & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2001.
"Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 337-57, December.
- Tomas Kögel & Alexia Prskawetz, 2000. "Agricultural productivity growth and escape from the Malthusian trap," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-002, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
- Fürnkranz-Prskawetz, Alexia & Kögel, Tomas, 2000. "Agricultural Productivity Growth and Escape from the Malthusian Trap," CEPR Discussion Papers 2485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael Kremer & Alexei Onatski & James Stock, 2001.
"Searching for Prosperity,"
NBER Working Papers
8250, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kremer, Michael & Onatski, Alexei & Stock, James, 2001. "Searching for prosperity," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 275-303, December.
- Strulik, Holger, 2007.
"Geography, Health, and the Pace of Demo-Economic Development,"
Hannover Economic Papers (HEP)
dp-361, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Strulik, Holger, 2008. "Geography, health, and the pace of demo-economic development," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 61-75, April.
- Bryan S. Graham & Jonathan R. W. Temple, 2004.
"Rich nations, poor nations: how much can multiple equilibria explain?,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Bryan Graham & Jonathan Temple, 2006. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much Can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 5-41, 03.
- Graham, Bryan S & Temple, Jonathan, 2001. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How Much can Multiple Equilibria Explain?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3046, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Graham, Bryan S. & Jonathan Temple, 2002. "Rich Nations, Poor Nations: How much can multiple equilibria explain?," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2002 91, Royal Economic Society.
- Chesnais, Jean-Claude, 1992. "The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286592, December.
- Chris Wilson, 2001. "On the Scale of Global Demographic Convergence 1950-2000," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 155-171.
- Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
- Bloom, David E & Canning, David & Sevilla, Jaypee, 2003. "Geography and Poverty Traps," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 355-78, December.
- Bianchi, Marco, 1997. "Testing for Convergence: Evidence from Non-parametric Multimodality Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 393-409, July-Aug..
- David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
- Shawn F. Dorius, 2008. "Global Demographic Convergence? A Reconsideration of Changing Intercountry Inequality in Fertility," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 34(3), pages 519-537.
- Holger Strulik, 2002.
"Economic Growth and Stagnation with Endogenous Health and Fertility,"
Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers
20208, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
- Holger Strulik, 2004. "Economic growth and stagnation with endogenous health and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 17(3), pages 433-453, 08.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec10:60. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - German National Library of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.