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Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric

  • Attar, M. Aykut

This paper projects the effects of exogenous fertility changes in Turkey on the age structure of population and the standards of living using a semi-reduced-form model of economic growth and demographic change. Both the technological progress and the fertility rate are endogenous. The calibrated version of the model delivers three important results: First, technological progress will be the major source of economic growth in Turkey in the upcoming decades. Second, even with a non-declining saving rate, the population aging will result in a growth slowdown since technological progress is not fast enough in Turkey. Third, even under an increasing rate of technological progress, a permanent upward shift in fertility levels would imply, relative to the benchmark, a significantly lower level of output per capita, a remarkably higher level of dependent population, and a persistently lower share of the working-age population for many decades. These results suggest that the priority of policy-makers in Turkey should be technological progress. The pro-natalist rhetoric, even if it proves to be strong enough to persuade the people of Turkey to have more children in the near future, does not have any economic significance.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 47275.

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Date of creation: 24 May 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47275
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  1. Irmen, Andreas, 2009. "Population Aging and the Direction of Technical Change," Working Papers 0493, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  2. Deniz Cicek & Ceyhun Elgin, 2010. "Not-Quite-Great Depressions of Turkey: A Quantitative Analysis of Economic Growth over 1968 - 2004," Working Papers 2010/07, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
  3. Pietro F. Peretto & Simone Valente, 2013. "Growth on a Finite Planet: Resources, Technology, and Population in the Long Run," Working Papers 13-9, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  4. Klaus Desmet & Stephen L. Parente, 2010. "The Evolution of Markets and the Revolution of Industry: a unified theory of growth," 2010 Meeting Papers 990, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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  6. Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2010. "The Fertility Transition Around the World - 1950-2005," PGDA Working Papers 5710, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  7. Larry E. Jones & Alice Schoonbroodt & Michèle Tertilt, 2010. "Fertility Theories: Can They Explain the Negative Fertility-Income Relationship?," NBER Chapters, in: Demography and the Economy, pages 43-100 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Growth without Scale Effects," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 41-63, February.
  9. Herzer, Dierk & Strulik, Holger & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2010. "The Long-run Determinants of Fertility: One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-456, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  10. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
  11. Prettner, Klaus & Bloom, David E. & Strulik, Holger, 2012. "Declining Fertility and Economic Well-Being: Do Education and Health Ride to the Rescue?," IZA Discussion Papers 6527, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  12. Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 393-430, December.
  13. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  14. Galor, Oded, 2005. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293 Elsevier.
  15. Strulik, Holger, 2012. "Patience and prosperity," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 336-352.
  16. Cheremukhin, Anton A. & Tutino, Antonella, 2014. "Asymmetric firm dynamics under rational inattention," Working Papers 1411, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  17. Elgin, Ceyhun & Tumen, Semih, 2012. "Can sustained economic growth and declining population coexist?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1899-1908.
  18. Connolly, Michelle & Peretto, Pietro F, 2003. " Industry and the Family: Two Engines of Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 115-48, March.
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