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Not-Quite-Great Depressions of Turkey: A Quantitative Analysis of Economic Growth over 1968 - 2004

  • Deniz Cicek
  • Ceyhun Elgin

Following the great depressions methodology suggested by Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007), we use growth accounting and perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium models to study growth performance of Turkey from 1968 to 2004. Our benchmark model without any frictions and taxes accounts for 86% of the observed change in the growth rate of GDP per-working age person and once we extend the model with taxes and capital adjustment costs it accounts for 60% of the observed reduction in hours worked per-working age person and 35% of the change in the growth of capital-output ratio. Also, we identify that the Turkish economy experienced a depression from 1976 to 1984 and the extended model performs remarkably well to account for the depression period. Our findings generally suggest that rigidities affecting capital accumulation and government policies using distortionary taxes have a crucial role in the evolution of various variables of the Turkish economy.

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Paper provided by Bogazici University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 2010/07.

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Date of creation: Jul 2010
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Handle: RePEc:bou:wpaper:2010/07
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  1. Timothy Kehoe & Edward Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Technical Appendices kehoe02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  2. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Documentos de Trabajo 110, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  3. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Data Appendix to A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Technical Appendices bergoeing02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  4. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2002. "Data Appendix to The French Depression in the 1930s," Technical Appendices beaudry02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  5. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?," Staff Report 318, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Staff Report 401, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  7. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott (), 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
  8. Timothy J Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2003. "Recent Great Depressions: Aggregate Growth in New Zealand and Switzerland," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000529, David K. Levine.
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