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Productivity, Demographics, and Growth in Turkey: 2004-12


  • Murat Üngör

    () (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Ankara, Turkey)

  • M. Koray Kalafatcılar

    () (Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Ankara, Turkey)


Among all the OECD countries, Turkey had the second highest average annual GDP growth (measured in constant local currency) and the fifth highest average annual growth of purchasing power parity (PPP)-adjusted per capita income between 2004 and 2012. We study the sources of this high growth era, comparing Turkey with other OECD countries and breaking down GDP per capita into three components: labor productivity, the ratio of employment to the working-age population, and the ratio of the working-age population to the total population. Our findings suggest a productivity-based growth era in Turkey before the global crisis and an employment-based one in the post-crisis period. We then provide a detailed analysis of contributing factors to notable aspects of this economic expansion: the role of capital deepening and higher total factor productivity (TFP) in aggregate output per worker growth; and the rise in female employment, especially in the service sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Üngör & M. Koray Kalafatcılar, 2014. "Productivity, Demographics, and Growth in Turkey: 2004-12," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 23-56, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:tek:journl:v:3:y:2014:i:1:p:23-56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64, June.
    2. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    3. Vivian Chen & Abhay Gupta & Andre Therrien & Gad Levanon & Bart van Ark, 2010. "Recent Productivity Developments in the World Economy: An Overview from The Conference Board Total Economy Database," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 19, pages 3-19, Spring.
    4. Çiçek, Deniz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2011. "Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2691-2700.
    5. Evren Ceritoglu & Okan Eren, 2014. "The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(3), pages 15-33.
    6. Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 393-430, December.
    7. repec:ucp:jhucap:doi:10.1086/702926 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Min Qiang Zhao, 2019. "The Rise of Services: The Role of Skills, Scale, and Female Labor Supply," Journal of Human Capital, University of Chicago Press, vol. 13(2), pages 157-187.
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    More about this item


    Demographics; growth; productivity; Turkey;

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries


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