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Financial Risk and Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Ofer Setty

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • David Weiss

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • Zvi Eckstein

    (The Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya)

Abstract

There is a strong correlation between the corporate interest rate spread and the unemployment rate.We make two contributions to the literature based on this observation. First, we model the mechanisms by which these financial conditions can affect unemployment in a DMP model with capital. Second, we quantify these mechanisms, disciplining our model with US data. Financial conditions affect unemployment in four ways. First, high interest rates lower profits. Second, higher interest rates make vacancy posting more costly. Third, higher default rates lower the expected future profits of firm owners. Finally, default can lead directly to a separation between the worker and firm. We quantify these channels following various strategies outlined in the literature. Preliminary results suggest the model is able to produce quantitatively significant fluctuations under all calibration strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ofer Setty & David Weiss & Zvi Eckstein, 2014. "Financial Risk and Unemployment," 2014 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:517
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    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2014/paper_517.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    2. Filippo Ippolito & Ali K. Ozdagli & Ander Pérez Orive, 2013. "Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1384, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    3. Ch. Pissarides., 2011. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 1.
    4. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Cycles économiques, Banques centrales et notions de crises
      by Antoine Enrouol in RachatDuCredit.com on 2016-06-09 19:50:22

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert E. Hall, 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," NBER Working Papers 22230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2088-2127, August.
    3. Jessica Wachter & Mete Kilic, 2017. "Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility," 2017 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082471, HAL.
    5. Melvyn G. Coles & Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi, 2018. "Do Job Destruction Shocks Matter in the Theory of Unemployment?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 118-136, July.
    6. Boeri, Tito & Jimeno, Juan F., 2016. "Learning from the Great Divergence in unemployment in Europe during the crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 32-46.
    7. Yinqiu Lu & Sophia Chen, 2018. "Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive the Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(1), pages 3-27, June.
    8. repec:esx:essedp:766 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082491, HAL.
    10. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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