IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed014/517.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Financial Risk and Unemployment

Author

Listed:
  • Ofer Setty

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • David Weiss

    (Tel Aviv University)

  • Zvi Eckstein

    (The Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya)

Abstract

There is a strong correlation between the corporate interest rate spread and the unemployment rate.We make two contributions to the literature based on this observation. First, we model the mechanisms by which these financial conditions can affect unemployment in a DMP model with capital. Second, we quantify these mechanisms, disciplining our model with US data. Financial conditions affect unemployment in four ways. First, high interest rates lower profits. Second, higher interest rates make vacancy posting more costly. Third, higher default rates lower the expected future profits of firm owners. Finally, default can lead directly to a separation between the worker and firm. We quantify these channels following various strategies outlined in the literature. Preliminary results suggest the model is able to produce quantitatively significant fluctuations under all calibration strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ofer Setty & David Weiss & Zvi Eckstein, 2014. "Financial Risk and Unemployment," 2014 Meeting Papers 517, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed014:517
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2014/paper_517.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2016. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1523-1569, July.
    2. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    3. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for Cross-Country Income Differences," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 9, pages 679-741, Elsevier.
    4. repec:wop:calsdi:97-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang, "undated". "Unemployment Crises," GSIA Working Papers 2013-E5, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    6. Filippo Ippolito & Ali K. Ozdagli & Ander Pérez Orive, 2013. "Is bank debt special for the transmission of monetary policy? Evidence from the stock market," Economics Working Papers 1384, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    7. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2015. "Understanding the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 110-167, January.
    9. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2014. "Credit, Vacancies and Unemployment Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, April.
    10. Chugh, Sanjay K., 2013. "Costly external finance and labor market dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2882-2912.
    11. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    12. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    13. Mark Gertler & Antonella Trigari, 2009. "Unemployment Fluctuations with Staggered Nash Wage Bargaining," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(1), pages 38-86, February.
    14. Robert E. Hall, 2017. "High Discounts and High Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 305-330, February.
    15. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    16. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Etienne Wasmer, 2013. "The Cyclical Volatility of Labor Markets under Frictional Financial Markets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 193-221, January.
    17. Yashiv, Eran, 2006. "Evaluating the performance of the search and matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 909-936, May.
    18. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 5266, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2014. "Risk Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(1), pages 27-65, January.
    20. Marcus Hagedorn & Fatih Karahan & Iourii Manovskii & Kurt Mitman, 2013. "Unemployment Benefits and Unemployment in the Great Recession: The Role of Macro Effects," NBER Working Papers 19499, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 238-271, February.
    22. Cooper, Russell & Haltiwanger, John & Willis, Jonathan L., 2007. "Search frictions: Matching aggregate and establishment observations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(Supplemen), pages 56-78, September.
    23. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    24. Edwin J. Elton & Martin J. Gruber & Deepak Agrawal & Christopher Mann, 2001. "Explaining the Rate Spread on Corporate Bonds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 247-277, February.
    25. Mortensen, Dale T, 1982. "Property Rights and Efficiency in Mating, Racing, and Related Games," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(5), pages 968-979, December.
    26. Caselli, Francesco, 2005. "Accounting for cross-country income differences," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3567, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    27. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    28. Robert E. Hall, 2005. "Employment Fluctuations with Equilibrium Wage Stickiness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 50-65, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Cycles économiques, Banques centrales et notions de crises
      by Antoine Enrouol in RachatDuCredit.com on 2016-06-09 19:50:22

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hall, R.E., 2016. "Macroeconomics of Persistent Slumps," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2131-2181, Elsevier.
    2. Alessandro Gavazza & Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Aggregate Recruiting Intensity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2088-2127, August.
    3. Jessica Wachter & Mete Kilic, 2017. "Risk, Unemployment, and the Stock Market: A Rare-Event-Based Explanation of Labor Market Volatility," 2017 Meeting Papers 129, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082471, HAL.
    5. Melvyn G. Coles & Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi, 2018. "Do Job Destruction Shocks Matter in the Theory of Unemployment?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 118-136, July.
    6. Boeri, Tito & Jimeno, Juan F., 2016. "Learning from the Great Divergence in unemployment in Europe during the crisis," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 32-46.
    7. Yinqiu Lu & Sophia Chen, 2018. "Does Balance Sheet Strength Drive the Investment Cycle? Evidence from Pre- and Post-Crisis Cyprus," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 12(1), pages 3-27, June.
    8. Yulia Moiseeva, 2020. "The Interaction between Credit and Labor Market Frictions," Discussion Paper Series, School of Economics and Finance 202007, School of Economics and Finance, University of St Andrews.
    9. repec:esx:essedp:766 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Olivero, Maria Pia, 2020. "Lending relationships and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Imen Ben Mohamed & Marine Salès, 2015. "Credit imperfections, labor market frictions and unemployment: a DSGE approach," Working Papers hal-01082491, HAL.
    12. Bai, Hang, 2021. "Unemployment and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 127-145.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zheng & Miao, Jianjun & Zha, Tao, 2016. "Land prices and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-105.
    2. Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas & Wasmer, Etienne, 2015. "Macroeconomic dynamics in a model of goods, labor, and credit market frictions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 97-113.
    3. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h481l2tb5 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5por5bt92h8l0bc7ls4elmcc0b is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/1787nsa6d1927a90u4bkkombn4 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1787nsa6d1927a90u4bkkombn4 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Eleni Iliopulos & François Langot & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2019. "Welfare Cost of Fluctuations When Labor Market Search Interacts with Financial Frictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(8), pages 2207-2237, December.
    8. Bodenstein, Martin & Kamber, Güneş & Thoenissen, Christoph, 2018. "Commodity prices and labour market dynamics in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 170-184.
    9. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2016. "Unemployment and Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84(4), pages 1523-1569, July.
    10. Tsasa, Jean-Paul K., 2022. "Labor market volatility in a fully specified RBC search model: An analytical investigation," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    11. Yashiv, Eran, 2007. "Labor search and matching in macroeconomics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1859-1895, November.
    12. Bai, Hang, 2021. "Unemployment and credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 127-145.
    13. Jeremy Lise & Shannon Seitz & Jeffrey Smith, 2015. "Evaluating search and matching models using experimental data," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-35, December.
    14. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Etienne Wasmer, 2015. "Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Model of Goods, Labor and Credit Market Frictions," SciencePo Working papers hal-03392977, HAL.
    15. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    16. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Loukas Karabarbounis, 2016. "The Cyclicality of the Opportunity Cost of Employment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(6), pages 1563-1618.
    17. Garín, Julio, 2015. "Borrowing constraints, collateral fluctuations, and the labor market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 112-130.
    18. Yaniv Yedid-Levi, 2016. "Why does employment in all major sectors move together over the business cycle?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 22, pages 131-156, October.
    19. Zhang, Yahong, 2018. "Financial factors and labor market fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 24-44.
    20. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    21. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, 2014. "Credit, Vacancies and Unemployment Fluctuations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, April.
    22. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/5l6uh8ogmqildh09h481l2tb5 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Sergio A. Lago Alves, 2018. "Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation, and Unemployment Volatility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 637-673, June.
    24. Kudoh, Noritaka & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2023. "Do general equilibrium effects matter for labor market dynamics?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    25. Martin, Christopher & Wang, Bingsong, 2020. "Search, shirking and labor market volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • J41 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Labor Contracts
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed014:517. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.