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Hitting the Great Wall: Structural change and China's growth slowdown

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  • Ye, Longfeng
  • Robertson, Peter E.

Abstract

China is facing slowing growth rates, slowing rates of rural to urban migration and resistance to reforms that would liberalize internal migration restrictions (Hukou). We use a two sector Ramsey growth model and show that, allowing for endogenous capital accumulation, labour reallocation has accounted for approximately one fifth of China's per capita GDP growth over the last 30 years, and that Hukou reform could generate a significant boost to China's per capita GDP growth over the next decade. Our results contrast with conclusions drawn from the traditional growth accounting literature on labour reallocation effects in China because our simulation method allows for endogenous capital accumulation dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Longfeng & Robertson, Peter E., 2019. "Hitting the Great Wall: Structural change and China's growth slowdown," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:56:y:2019:i:c:1
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2019.101302
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; Structural change; Dual economy; Capital accumulation; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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