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The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India

  • Bloom, David E.
  • Canning, David
  • Hu, Linlin
  • Liu, Yuanli
  • Mahal, Ajay
  • Yip, Winnie

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full-income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0147-5967(09)00086-9
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Comparative Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2010)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 17-33

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:17-33
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622864

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