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The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India

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  • Bloom, David E.
  • Canning, David
  • Hu, Linlin
  • Liu, Yuanli
  • Mahal, Ajay
  • Yip, Winnie

Abstract

We find that a cross-country model of economic growth successfully tracks the growth takeoffs in China and India. The major drivers of the predicted takeoffs are improved health, increased openness to trade, and a rising labor force-to-population ratio due to fertility decline. We also explore the effect of the reallocation of labor from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors. Including the money value of longevity improvements in a measure of full-income reduces the gap between the magnitude of China's takeoff relative to India's due to the relative stagnation in life expectancy in China since 1980.

Suggested Citation

  • Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jcecon:v:38:y:2010:i:1:p:17-33
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Bloom & Elizabeth T. Cafiero & Mark E. McGovern & Klaus Prettner & Anderson Stanciole & Jonathan Weiss & Samuel Bakkila & Larry Rosenberg, 2013. "The Economic Impact of Non-communicable Disease in China and India: Estimates, Projections, and Comparisons," PGDA Working Papers 10713, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    2. Nadide Sevil Halıcı-Tülüce & İbrahim Doğan & Cüneyt Dumrul, 2016. "Is income relevant for health expenditure and economic growth nexus?," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 23-49, March.
    3. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0595-x is not listed on IDEAS
    4. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    5. Laishram Ladusingh & M.R. Narayana, 2012. "Demographic dividends for India: evidence and implications based on National Transfer Accounts," Chapters,in: Aging, Economic Growth, and Old-Age Security in Asia, chapter 7, pages 203-230 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Arokiasamy Perianayagam & Srinivas Goli, 2012. "Provisional results of the 2011 Census of India: Slowdown in growth, ascent in literacy, but more missing girls," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(10), pages 785-801, August.
    7. Emese Kreiszné Hudák & Péter Varga & Viktor Várpalotai, 2015. "The macroeconomic impacts of demographic changes in Hungary in the context of the European Union," Financial and Economic Review, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary), vol. 14(2), pages 89-127.
    8. Heloisa Marone, 2016. "Demographic Dividends, Gender Equality, and Economic Growth; The Case of Cabo Verde," IMF Working Papers 16/169, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Marga Peeters & Loek Groot, 2012. "A Global View On Demographic Pressure And Labour Market Participation," Journal of Global Economy, Research Centre for Social Sciences,Mumbai, India, vol. 8(2), pages 165-194, June.
    10. GOLLEY, Jane & WEI, Zheng, 2015. "Population dynamics and economic growth in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 15-32.
    11. Jane Golley & Rod Tyers & Yixiao Zhou, 2016. "Contractions in Chinese Fertility and Savings: Long-run Domestic and Global Implications," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Iris Day & John Simon (ed.), Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World Reserve Bank of Australia.
    12. Gang Chen & Brett Inder & Bruce Hollingsworth, 2014. "Health Investment And Economic Output In Regional China," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 32(2), pages 261-274, April.
    13. Narayan, Seema & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Mishra, Sagarika, 2010. "Investigating the relationship between health and economic growth: Empirical evidence from a panel of 5 Asian countries," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 404-411, August.
    14. repec:eee:joecag:v:1-2:y:2013:i::p:35-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Huang, Li-Hsuan & Huang, Julia Hsin-Yi, 2013. "Does Labor Market Rigidity Matter for Economic Performance? Evidence from the Four Asian Tigers," MPRA Paper 57905, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0407-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:eee:joecag:v:4:y:2014:i:c:p:100-111 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. M. Narayana, 2015. "India’s Age Structure Transition, Sectoral Labor Productivities, and Economic Growth: Evidence and Implications Based on National Transfer Accounts," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 34(3), pages 381-415, June.
    19. Murat Üngör & M. Koray Kalafatcılar, 2014. "Productivity, Demographics, and Growth in Turkey: 2004-12," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 23-56, January.
    20. Gargi Bhattacharya & Sushil Kr. Haldar, 2015. "Does demographic dividend yield economic dividend? India, a case study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 35(2), pages 1274-1291.

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