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Contraception and the Celtic Tiger

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  • David E. Bloom

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

  • David Canning

    (Harvard School of Public Health)

Abstract

New cross-country evidence for 1965 to 1995 is presented on the link that runs from population change to economic growth. The estimates indicate that demographic change is a powerful determinant of income growth, operating mainly via the effect of changes in age structure. The estimates also indicate that the benefits of demographic change can be greatly magnified by a favourable policy environment. A case study of economic growth in Ireland suggests that the legalisation of contraception in 1980 resulted in a sharp decline in fertility and a sizeable increase in the relative share of the working-age population. This demographic shift, operating in conjunction with a favourable policy environment, can explain in large measure the birth of the Celtic Tiger. However, given demographic projections for Ireland, the Tiger’s roar may become less formidable as it continues to mature.

Suggested Citation

  • David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2003. "Contraception and the Celtic Tiger," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 229-247.
    • Handle: RePEc:eso:journl:v:34:y:2003:i:3:p:229-247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Fink, Gunther & Finlay, Jocelyn E., 2007. "Does age structure forecast economic growth?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 569-585.
    2. Cormac Ó Gráda, 2008. "Éirvana," Working Papers 200812, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
    3. Neha Jain & Srinivas Goli, 2022. "Demographic Change and Economic Development in India," Working Papers 2262, Indian Institute of Foreign Trade.
    4. Christine McGarrigle & Hilary Cronin & Rose Kenny, 2014. "The impact of being the intermediate caring generation and intergenerational transfers on self-reported health of women in Ireland," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 59(2), pages 301-308, April.
    5. Jain, Neha & Goli, Srinivas, 2021. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in India," SocArXiv sd7na, Center for Open Science.
    6. Wyndow, Paula & Li, Jianghong & Mattes, Eugen, 2013. "Female Empowerment as a Core Driver of Democratic Development: A Dynamic Panel Model from 1980 to 2005," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 34-54.
    7. Anthony J. Evans, 2011. "The Irish Economic ‘Miracle’: Celtic Tiger or Bengal Kitten?," Chapters, in: David Howden (ed.), Institutions in Crisis, chapter 3, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    8. Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Hu, Linlin & Liu, Yuanli & Mahal, Ajay & Yip, Winnie, 2010. "The contribution of population health and demographic change to economic growth in China and India," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 17-33, March.
    9. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2010. "Contribution of health to economic development: A survey and overview," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 4, pages 1-52.
    10. Shekh Farid & Mamata Mostari, 2022. "Population transition and demographic dividend in Bangladesh: extent and policy implication," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 108-126, June.
    11. Basu, Alaka M. & Basu, Kaushik, 2014. "The prospects for an imminent demographic dividend in Africa: The case for cautious optimism," WIDER Working Paper Series 053, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    12. David E. Bloom & Larry Rosenberg, 2011. "The Future of South Asia: Population Dynamics, Economic Prospects, and Regional Coherence," PGDA Working Papers 6811, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    13. Choudhury, Agnitra Roy & Polachek, Solomon, 2019. "The Impact of Paid Family Leave on the Timing of Infant Vaccinations," IZA Discussion Papers 12483, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. David E. Bloom, 2011. "Population Dynamics in India and Implications for Economic Growth," PGDA Working Papers 6511, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    15. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
    16. Harkat, Tahar & Driouchi, Ahmed, 2017. "Demographic Dividend & Economic Development in Arab Countries," MPRA Paper 82880, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. David E Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    18. Mr. Paulo Drummond & Mr. Vimal V Thakoor & Shu Yu, 2014. "Africa Rising: Harnessing the Demographic Dividend," IMF Working Papers 2014/143, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Michele Gragnolati & Ole Hagen Jorgensen & Romero Rocha & Anna Fruttero, 2011. "Growing Old in an Older Brazil : Implications of Population Ageing on Growth, Poverty, Public Finance, and Service Delivery," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2351, December.
    20. Husain, Muhammad Jami, 2009. "Contribution of health to economic development: a survey and overview," Economics Discussion Papers 2009-40, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. Eoin O'Malley, 2012. "A Survey of Explanations for the Celtic Tiger Boom," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp417, IIIS.
    22. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
    23. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Larry Rosenberg, 2011. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in South Asia," PGDA Working Papers 6711, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.

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