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The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Evren Ceritoglu
  • Okan Eren

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to examine and quantify the impact of demographic change on household savings, which is expected to take place in the following years in Turkey. Moreover, the effects of the increase in the share of people with college degree or more in adult population and the rise in labor force participation rates on household savings are analyzed in this paper. Under the assumption that a change in the structure of population will be accompanied with rising labor force participation rates and increasing ratio of college graduates, household saving ratio is projected to increase by 7.61 percentage points between 2010 and 2050. The sole contribution of the change in the structure of population will be 1.91 percentage points, while the contributions of the increases in labor force participation rates and the share of college graduates are expected to be 1.45 and 4.59 percentage points, respectively. According to our empirical findings, the expected increase in the ratio of college graduate has the highest impact on household savings among the factors taken into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Evren Ceritoglu & Okan Eren, 2014. "The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(3), pages 15-33.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:14:y:2014:i:3:p:15-33
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    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2014/Volume+14-3/
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-99–110.
    2. Murat Üngör & M. Koray Kalafatcılar, 2014. "Productivity, Demographics, and Growth in Turkey: 2004-12," Ekonomi-tek - International Economics Journal, Turkish Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 23-56, January.
    3. Sumru Altug & Melih Can Firat, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11.
    4. Çağaçan DEĞER & Elif ERER, 2020. "Social Security Membership and Saving: The Turkish Case," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 28(43).
    5. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "Disentangling Age and Cohorts Effects on Home-Ownership and Housing Wealth in Turkey," Working Papers 1706, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Household savings; Demographic change; College education; Labor force participation rates; Saving projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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