IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tcb/cebare/v18y2018i1p1-11.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Sumru Altug
  • Melih Can Firat

Abstract

The Turkish macroeconomic experience since 2002 has been characterized by three striking trends: (1) an accelerated growth rate of income, (2) a sharp decline in the real interest rate, and (3) a sustained fall in the saving rate of different age-groups. During the same period, there has also been a significant increase in access to credit by Turkish households. In this paper, we argue that a model which incorporates a borrowing constraint mechanism together with the observed increases in the expected growth rate of income and the substantial declines in the real interest rate is able to explain the change in saving across cohorts in Turkey over the last decade. We provide both micro-level evidence on the age-saving profile for Turkey as well as quantitative results from a simple three-period OLG framework with borrowing constraints to account for the change in the saving rate for different age-groups between 2004 and 2014.

Suggested Citation

  • Sumru Altug & Melih Can Firat, 2018. "Borrowing constraints and saving in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 18(1), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:18:y:2018:i:1:p:1-11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/central-bank-review/vol/18/issue/1
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    2. Caroline Van Rijckeghem, 2010. "Determinants of Private Saving in Turkey: An Update," Working Papers 2010/04, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    3. Deaton, Angus, 1991. "Saving and Liquidity Constraints," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(5), pages 1221-1248, September.
    4. Modigliani, Franco, 1986. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift, and the Wealth of Nations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(3), pages 297-313, June.
    5. Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(3), pages 393-430, December.
    6. Angus Deaton & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Growth and Saving Among Individuals and Households," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 212-225, May.
    7. Evren Ceritoglu & Okan Eren, 2014. "The Effects of Demographic and Social Changes on Household Savings in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(3), pages 15-33.
    8. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    9. Andrew Chesher, 1997. "Diet Revealed?: Semiparametric Estimation of Nutrient Intake–Age Relationships," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 160(3), pages 389-428, September.
    10. Tullio Jappelli & Marco Pagano, 1994. "Saving, Growth, and Liquidity Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(1), pages 83-109.
    11. Cengiz Tunc & Abdullah Yavas, 2016. "Not all credit is created equal : Mortgage vs non-mortgage debt and private saving rate in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(1), pages 25-32.
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/169d87l3e88rpoi5e1tgckfi6a is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Andrew Chesher, 1998. "Individual demands from household aggregates: time and age variation in the composition of diet," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(5), pages 505-524.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Isil Erol, 2019. "New Geographies of Residential Capitalism: Financialization of the Turkish Housing Market Since the Early 2000s," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 724-740, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2015. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(9), pages 2838-2881, September.
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c87bgksc18ba9tn72tqcganvu is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud & Keyu Jin, 2012. "Credit Constraints and Growth in a Global Economy," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473915, HAL.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c87bgksc18ba9tn72tqcganvu is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Taha Choukhmane & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Keyu Jin, 2023. "The One-Child Policy and Household Saving," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 987-1032.
    6. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "Disentangling Age and Cohorts Effects on Home-Ownership and Housing Wealth in Turkey," Working Papers 1706, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. İmrohoroğlu, Ayşe & Zhao, Kai, 2018. "The chinese saving rate: Long-term care risks, family insurance, and demographics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 33-52.
    8. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," Working Papers hal-01164462, HAL.
    9. Markus Brueckner & Tomoo Kikuchi & George Vachadze, 2016. "Effects of Income Growth on Domestic Saving Rates: The Role of Poverty and Borrowing Constraints," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-636, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    10. Evren Ceritoglu, 2017. "The effect of house price changes on cohort consumption in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 17(3), pages 1-99–110.
    11. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2006. "Demographic change and the UK savings rate," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(2), pages 119-136.
    12. Zsofia Barany & Nicolas Coeurdacier & Stéphane Guibaud, 2015. "Fertility, Longevity and International Capital Flows," SciencePo Working papers hal-01164462, HAL.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5402sfihji9vea8rb66cd9nphe is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Marcos D. Chamon & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 93-130, January.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5402sfihji9vea8rb66cd9nphe is not listed on IDEAS
    16. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2003. "Demographic Change and the UK Savings Rate," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/550, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    17. Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2016. "Fertility, Longevity, and Capital Flows," 2016 Meeting Papers 442, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Thomas F. Crossley & Yuri Ostrovsky, 2003. "A Synthetic Cohort Analysis of Canadian Housing Careers," Social and Economic Dimensions of an Aging Population Research Papers 107, McMaster University.
    19. Che-cheong Poon & Tai-Yuen Hon, 2015. "Household Savings in Hong Kong: A Statistical Analysis," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 353-368, September.
    20. Marcet, Albert & Obiols-Homs, Francesc & Weil, Philippe, 2007. "Incomplete markets, labor supply and capital accumulation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2621-2635, November.
    21. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2006. "Housing Wealth, Credit Conditions and Consumption," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-08, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    22. Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, 2004. "Consumption Theory," Handbooks, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England, number 23, April.
    23. Tansel, Aysit & Öztürk, Ceyhan & Erdil, Erkan, 2021. "The Impact of Body Mass Index on Growth, Schooling, Productivity, and Savings: A Cross-Country Study," GLO Discussion Paper Series 929, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    24. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5e8993t1rs83t9os9ctp26bhfv is not listed on IDEAS
    25. John Laitner, 2004. "Precautionary Saving Over the Lifecycle," Working Papers wp083, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Borrowing constraints; Life-cycle household saving; Nonlinear estimation; Turkey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:18:y:2018:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.