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Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004

Listed author(s):
  • Çiçek, Deniz
  • Elgin, Ceyhun

Following the great depressions methodology suggested by Kehoe and Prescott (2002, 2007), we use growth accounting and perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium models to study growth performance of Turkey from 1968 to 2004. Our benchmark model without any frictions and taxes accounts for 86% of the observed change in the growth rate of GDP per-working age person and once we extend the model with taxes and capital adjustment costs it accounts for 60% of the observed reduction in hours worked per-working age person and 35% of the change in the growth of capital-output ratio. Also, we identify that the Turkish economy experienced a depression from 1976 to 1984 and the extended model performs remarkably well to account for the depression period. Our findings generally suggest that rigidities affecting capital accumulation and government policies using distortionary taxes have a crucial role in the evolution of various variables of the Turkish economy.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311002021
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
Pages: 2691-2700

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:6:p:2691-2700
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2011.08.010
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2004. "The 1990s in Japan: a lost decade," Chapters,in: The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 2 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  2. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-681, September.
  3. Finn E. Kydland & Carlos E. J. M. Zarazaga, 2002. "Argentina's Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 152-165, January.
  4. Fabrizio Perri & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2002. "The Great Depression in Italy: Trade Restrictions and Real Wage Rigidities," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 128-151, January.
  5. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2002. "The French Depression in the 1930s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 73-99, January.
  6. David Carey & Harry Tchilinguirian, 2000. "Average Effective Tax Rates on Capital, Labour and Consumption," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 258, OECD Publishing.
  7. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2017. "Productivity, Taxes, and Hours Worked in Spain: 1970–2015," NBER Working Papers 23592, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Altug, Sumru & Filiztekin, Alpay & Pamuk, Şevket, 2008. "Sources of long-term economic growth for Turkey, 1880–2005," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 393-430, December.
  9. Fumio Hayashi & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "The 1990s in Japan: A Lost Decade," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 206-235, January.
  10. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  11. Timothy J Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2003. "Recent Great Depressions: Aggregate Growth in New Zealand and Switzerland," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000529, David K. Levine.
  12. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 166-205, January.
  13. Cagatay Telli & Ebru Voyvoda & Erinc Yeldan, 2008. "Macroeconomics of twin-targeting in Turkey: analytics of a financial computable general equilibrium model," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 227-242.
  14. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
  15. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Nov, pages 16-44.
  16. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What Can We Learn from the Current Crisis in Argentina?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 609-633, November.
  17. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
  18. Timothy Kehoe & Kim Ruhl, 2003. "Recent great depressions: Aggregate growth in New Zealand and Switzerland, 1973-2000," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 5-40.
  19. repec:spr:series:v:8:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s13209-017-0158-9 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott(), 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
  21. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 1999. "The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-24.
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