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What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?

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  • Timothy J. Kehoe

Abstract

Currently, Argentina is experiencing what the government describes as a \\"great depression.\\" Using the \\"Great Depressions\\" methodology developed by Cole and Ohanian (1999) and Kehoe and Prescott (2002), we find that the primary determinants of both the boom in Argentina in the 1990s and the subsequent depression were changes in productivity, rather than changes in factor inputs. The timing of events links the boom to the currency-board-like Convertibility Plan and the crisis to its collapse. To gain credibility, the Argentine government took measures to make abandoning the plan more costly. Because the government was unable to enforce fiscal discipline, however, these increased costs failed to make the plan more credible and instead made the crisis far worse when it failed.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What can we learn from the current crisis in Argentina?," Staff Report 318, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:318
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Italeave: Mother of all financial crises
      by Steve Cecchetti and Kim Schoenholtz in Money, Banking and Financial Markets on 2018-06-04 11:55:24

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    Cited by:

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    4. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 75(2), pages 129-151.
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    9. Gogos, Stylianos G. & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vassilatos, Vanghelis, 2014. "1979–2001: A Greek great depression through the lens of neoclassical growth theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 316-331.
    10. Nikas, A. & Koasidis, K. & Köberle, A.C. & Kourtesi, G. & Doukas, H., 2022. "A comparative study of biodiesel in Brazil and Argentina: An integrated systems of innovation perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    11. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2008. "Two to Tangle: Financial Development, Political Instability and Economic Growth in Argentina (1896–2000)," IZA Discussion Papers 3752, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Çiçek, Deniz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2011. "Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2691-2700.
    13. Meza, Felipe & Benjamin, David, 2006. "Productivity in economies with financial frictions: facts and a theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 613, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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    15. Minetti, Raoul & Peng, Tao, 2013. "Lending constraints, real estate prices and business cycles in emerging economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2397-2416.
    16. Jérôme Sgard, 2004. "Ce qu’on en dit après : le « currency board » argentin et sa fin tragique," Post-Print hal-01019663, HAL.
    17. Ensar Yilmaz & İbrahim Engin Kiliç, 2021. "Estimating Firm‐Level Capital Stock: The Evidence From Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 59(4), pages 371-404, December.
    18. Carlos Gustavo Machicado, 2007. "Macroeconomic and Welfare Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment in Five Latin American Countries," Development Research Working Paper Series 14/2007, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
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    20. Meza, Felipe & Benjamin, David, 2006. "Productivity in economies with financial frictions: facts and a theory," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0613, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
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    Keywords

    Monetary policy - Argentina; Argentina;

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