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Catch-up growth followed by stagnation: Mexico, 1950–2010

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  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Felipe Meza

Abstract

In 1950 Mexico entered an economic takeoff and grew rapidly for more than 30 years. Growth stopped during the crises of 1982–1995, despite major reforms, including liberalization of foreign trade and investment. Since then growth has been modest. We analyze the economic history of Mexico 1877– 2010. We conclude that the growth 1950–1981 was driven by urbanization, industrialization, and education and that Mexico would have grown even more rapidly if trade and investment had been liberalized sooner. If Mexico is to resume rapid growth — so that it can approach U.S. levels of income — it needs further reforms.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Working Papers with number 693.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmwp:693
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
  • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
  • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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  1. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why have economic reforms in Mexico not generated growth?," Staff Report 453, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Timothy Kehoe & Edward Prescott, 2002. "Data Appendix to Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Technical Appendices kehoe02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  3. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott(), 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
  4. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2001. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 8520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 1-112.
  7. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski, 2008. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Working Paper Series WP-08-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  8. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
  9. Chiquiar, Daniel & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2005. "Trade and business-cycle synchronization: evidence from Mexican and U.S. manufacturing industries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 187-216, August.
  10. E. Cristina Echevarria, 2008. "International trade and the sectoral composition of production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 192-206, January.
  11. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, December.
  12. Felipe Meza, 2008. "Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy, and the 1995 GDP Contraction in Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1239-1261, 09.
  13. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Data Appendix to A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Technical Appendices bergoeing02, Review of Economic Dynamics.
  14. Meza Felipe & Quintin Erwan, 2007. "Factor Utilization and the Real Impact of Financial Crises," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, September.
  15. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-52, May.
  16. Rawski, Thomas G, 1994. "Chinese Industrial Reform: Accomplishments, Prospects, and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 271-75, May.
  17. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
  18. Gueorgui Kambourov, 2009. "Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 76(4), pages 1321-1358.
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Cited by:

  1. Timothy Kehoe & Sewon Hur & Kim Ruhl & Jose Asturias, 2016. "The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms," 2016 Meeting Papers 316, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Costa, Daniela & Raveendranathan, Gajen, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited: Part 1: A General Framework and Taking Off into Growth," Economic Policy Paper 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  3. Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2016. "Bond Finance, Bank Credit, and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 22377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia & Felipe Meza, 2014. "Credit, Misallocation and TFP: The case of Mexico (2003-2010)," 2014 Meeting Papers 701, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Costa, Daniela & Raveendranathan, Gajen, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2: Catching Up to and Joining the Economic Leader," Economic Policy Paper 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Felipe Meza & Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2014. "Credit, Sectoral Misallocation and TFP: The Case of Mexico 2003-2010," Working Papers 1402, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.

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