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Bond Finance, Bank Credit, and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Open Economy

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  • Roberto Chang
  • Andrés Fernández
  • Adam Gulan

Abstract

Corporate sectors in emerging markets have noticeably increased their reliance on foreign financing, presumably reflecting low global interest rates. The evidence also shows a rebalancing from bank loans towards bonds. To study these developments, we develop a dynamic open economy model where these modes of finance are determined endogenously. The model replicates the stylized facts following a drop in world interest rates; in particular, rebalancing towards bonds occurs because bank credit becomes relatively more expensive, reflecting the scarcity of bank equity. More generally, the model is suitable for studying interactions between modes of finance and the macroeconomy.

Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Chang & Andrés Fernández & Adam Gulan, 2016. "Bond Finance, Bank Credit, and Aggregate Fluctuations in an Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 22377, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22377
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    Cited by:

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    2. Caballero, Julián & Fernández, Andrés & Park, Jongho, 2019. "On corporate borrowing, credit spreads and economic activity in emerging economies: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 160-178.
    3. Bacchetta, Philippe & Cordonier, Rachel & Merrouche, Ouarda, 2023. "The rise in foreign currency bonds: The role of US monetary policy and capital controls," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Chang, Roberto & Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2017. "Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 90-109.
    5. Haavio, Markus & Ripatti, Antti & Takalo, Tuomas, 2022. "Public funding of banks and firms in a time of crisis," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2022, Bank of Finland.
    6. Zafer Adali & Bilgin Bari, 2017. "Monetary Policy And Bank Lending Chanel in Turkey," International Journal of Finance & Banking Studies, Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 6(2), pages 24-36, April.
    7. Pagliacci, Carolina, 2020. "Financial constraints and inflation in Latin America: The impacts of bond financing and depreciations on supply inflation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 379-397.
    8. Calomiris, Charles W. & Larrain, Mauricio & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Williams, Tomas, 2022. "Large international corporate bonds: Investor behavior and firm responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
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    10. Darmouni, Olivier & Geisecke, Oliver & Rodnyanky, Alexander, 2019. "The Bond Lending Channel of Monetary Policy," MPRA Paper 95141, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Cerutti, Eugenio & Hong, Gee Hee, 2021. "Substitution patterns in capital inflows: Evidence from disaggregated capital flow data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    12. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2017. "Capital controls as shock absorbers," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 43-67.
    13. Santiago Camara & Maximo Sangiacomo, 2022. "Borrowing Constraints in Emerging Markets," Papers 2211.10864, arXiv.org.
    14. Kara, Alper & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim & Unalmis, Deren, 2021. "Financial contagion and the role of firm characteristics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
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    16. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Julián Caballero & Andres Fernandez & Jongho Park, 2016. "On Corporate Borrowing, Credit Spreads and Economic Activity in Emerging Economies: An Empirical Investigation," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 95296, Inter-American Development Bank.
    18. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2019. "Global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-32.
    19. Lin, Nan & Li, Ao & Ke, Jinjun & Yuan, Jiayue & Chen, Han, 2023. "The governance role of corporate party organization on innovation," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 657-670.
    20. De Gregorio, José & Jara, Mauricio, 2024. "The boom of corporate debt in emerging markets: Carry trade or save to invest?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    21. Shang-Jin Wei & Jing Zhou, 2018. "Quality of Public Governance and the Capital Structure of Nations and Firms," NBER Working Papers 24184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Abraham, Facundo & Cortina, Juan J. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2021. "The rise of domestic capital markets for corporate financing: Lessons from East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    23. Xiaoye Liu & Kedong Yin & Yun Cao, 2021. "Contribution of the Optimization of Financial Structure to the Real Economy: Evidence from China’s Financial System Using TVP-VAR Model," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-21, September.
    24. Jelena Zivanovic, 2019. "Corporate Debt Composition and Business Cycles," Staff Working Papers 19-5, Bank of Canada.
    25. Mimouni, Karim & Smaoui, Houcem & Temimi, Akram & Al-Azzam, Moh'd, 2019. "The impact of Sukuk on the performance of conventional and Islamic banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-54.

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    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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