IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/17700.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico, 1950-2010

Author

Listed:
  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Felipe Meza

Abstract

In 1950 Mexico entered an economic takeoff and grew rapidly for more than 30 years. Growth stopped during the crises of 1982-1995, despite major reforms, including liberalization of foreign trade and investment. Since then growth has been modest. We analyze the economic history of Mexico 1877-2010. We conclude that the growth 1950-1981 was driven by urbanization, industrialization, and education and that Mexico would have grown even more rapidly if trade and investment had been liberalized sooner. If Mexico is to resume rapid growth -- so that it can approach U.S. levels of income -- it needs further reforms.

Suggested Citation

  • Timothy J. Kehoe & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico, 1950-2010," NBER Working Papers 17700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17700
    Note: EFG
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w17700.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. World Bank, 2008. "Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures : 2005 International Comparison Program," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 21558, December.
    3. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    4. José de Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 2004. "Growth and Adjustment in East Asia and Latin America," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Fall 2004), pages 69-134, August.
    5. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2003. "Liberalization, Growth, and Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico and the Developing World," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 1-112.
    6. E. Cristina Echevarria, 2008. "International trade and the sectoral composition of production," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 192-206, January.
    7. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 166-205, January.
    8. Buera, Francisco J. & Kaboski, Joseph P., 2012. "Scale and the origins of structural change," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 684-712.
    9. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
    10. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2009. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 235-249, July.
    11. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    12. Felipe Meza, 2008. "Financial Crisis, Fiscal Policy, and the 1995 GDP Contraction in Mexico," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(6), pages 1239-1261, September.
    13. Manuel Ramos-Francia & Alberto Torres, 2005. "Reducing Inflation through Inflation Targeting: The Mexican Experience," Springer Books, in: Rolf J. Langhammer & Lúcio Vinhas Souza (ed.), Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America, pages 1-29, Springer.
    14. Guariglia, Alessandra & Poncet, Sandra, 2008. "Could financial distortions be no impediment to economic growth after all? Evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 633-657, December.
    15. Lewis, William W., 2004. "The Power of Productivity," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226476766.
    16. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-1027, December.
    17. Meza Felipe & Quintin Erwan, 2007. "Factor Utilization and the Real Impact of Financial Crises," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-41, September.
    18. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, January.
    19. Cole, Harold L. & Kehoe, Timothy J., 1996. "A self-fulfilling model of Mexico's 1994-1995 debt crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 309-330, November.
    20. Chiquiar, Daniel & Ramos-Francia, Manuel, 2005. "Trade and business-cycle synchronization: evidence from Mexican and U.S. manufacturing industries," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 187-216, August.
    21. Charles I. Jones, 2011. "Intermediate Goods and Weak Links in the Theory of Economic Development," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-28, April.
    22. Barry Bosworth & Susan M. Collins, 2008. "Accounting for Growth: Comparing China and India," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 45-66, Winter.
    23. Gueorgui Kambourov, 2009. "Labour Market Regulations and the Sectoral Reallocation of Workers: The Case of Trade Reforms," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(4), pages 1321-1358.
    24. Rawski, Thomas G, 1994. "Chinese Industrial Reform: Accomplishments, Prospects, and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 271-275, May.
    25. Ramos Francia Manuel & Torres García Alberto, 2005. "Reducing Inflation Through Inflation Targeting: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2005-01, Banco de México.
    26. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "A Decade Lost and Found: Mexico and Chile in the 1980s," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(1), pages 166-205, January.
    27. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 26(Win), pages 3-30.
    28. World Bank, 2011. "World Development Indicators 2011," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2315, December.
    29. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    30. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306, December.
    31. Timothy J. Kehoe & Edward C. Prescott, 2007. "Great depressions of the twentieth century," Monograph, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, number 2007gdott.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chang, Roberto & Fernández, Andrés & Gulan, Adam, 2017. "Bond finance, bank credit, and aggregate fluctuations in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 90-109.
    2. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
    3. Asturias, Jose & Hur, Sewon & Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2016. "The interaction and sequencing of policy reforms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 45-66.
    4. Daniela Costa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Gajen Raveendranathan, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2: Catching Up to and Joining the Economic Leader," Economic Policy Paper 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Daniela Costa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Gajen Raveendranathan, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited: Part 1: A General Framework and Taking Off into Growth," Economic Policy Paper 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia & Felipe Meza, 2014. "Credit, Misallocation and TFP: The case of Mexico (2003-2010)," 2014 Meeting Papers 701, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Felipe Meza & Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2014. "Credit, Sectoral Misallocation and TFP: The Case of Mexico 2003-2010," Working Papers 1402, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    8. De La Peña, Rogelio & García, Ignacio, 2023. "Untangling crises: GFC and COVID-19 through the lens of a DSGE model," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 4(2).
    9. Edmar Bacha & Regis Bonelli, 2015. "Coincident growth collapses: Brazil and Mexico since the early 1980s," Textos para Discussão 30, Instituto de Estudos de Política Econômica.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-1027, December.
    2. Timothy Kehoe & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico 1950–2008," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 48(2), pages 227-268.
    3. Murat Ungor, 2017. "Productivity Growth and Labor Reallocation: Latin America versus East Asia," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 24, pages 25-42, March.
    4. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2019. "The Canadian productivity stagnation, 20022014," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 561-583, May.
    5. Ruy Lama, 2011. "Accounting for Output Drops in Latin America," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(2), pages 295-316, April.
    6. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "What Can We Learn from the Current Crisis in Argentina?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(5), pages 609-633, November.
    7. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2012. "Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 336-358, July.
    8. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2009. "Sudden stops, sectoral reallocations, and the real exchange rate," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 235-249, July.
    9. Çiçek, Deniz & Elgin, Ceyhun, 2011. "Not-quite-great depressions of Turkey: A quantitative analysis of economic growth over 1968–2004," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2691-2700.
    10. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2009. "Business cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: an RBC approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 148-170.
    11. Andrés Fernández & Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Cesar E. Tamayo, 2019. "Saving Rates in Latin America: A Neoclassical Perspective," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 791-823, December.
    12. Julio Cesar Leal Ordonez, 2014. "Tax collection, the informal sector, and productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 262-286, April.
    13. Pratap, Sangeeta & Quintin, Erwan, 2011. "Financial crises and labor market turbulence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(6), pages 601-615.
    14. Betty Agnani & Amaia Iza, 2011. "Growth in an Oil Abundant Economy: The Case of Venezuela," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 61-79, May.
    15. Nezih Guner & Gustavo Ventura & Xu Yi, 2008. "Macroeconomic Implications of Size-Dependent Policies," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 721-744, October.
    16. Stylianos G. Gogos & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Vanghelis Vassilatos, 2017. "Rent Seeking Activities and Aggregate Economic Performance - The Case of Greece," Working Papers 201712, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    17. Agnani, Betty & Iza Padilla, María Amaya, 2005. "Growth in an oil abundant economy: The case of Venezuela," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    18. Kaiji Chen & Alfonso Irarrazabal, 2015. "The Role of Allocative Efficiency in a Decade of Recovery," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(3), pages 523-550, July.
    19. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2013. "Misallocation and productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, January.
    20. Daniela Costa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Gajen Raveendranathan, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited: Part 1: A General Framework and Taking Off into Growth," Economic Policy Paper 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O54 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Latin America; Caribbean

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17700. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.