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Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises

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Abstract

The financial crises or “sudden stops” of the last decade in emerging economies were accompanied by a large fall in total factor productivity. In this paper we explore the role of financial frictions in exacerbating the misallocation of resources and explaining this drop in TFP. We build a dynamic two-sector model of a small open economy with a cash in advance constraint where firms have to finance a part of their purchase of intermediate goods prior to production. The model is calibrated to the Mexican economy before the 1995 crisis and subject to an unexpected shock to interest rates. The financial friction can generate an endogenous fall in TFP of about 3.5 percent and can explain 74 percent of the observed fall in GDP per worker. Adding a cost of adjusting labor between the two sectors and sectoral specificity of capital also generates the sectoral patterns of output and resource use observed in the data after the sudden stop. The results highlight the interaction between interest rates and allocative inefficiencies as an explanation of the real effects of the financial crisis.

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  • Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2010. "Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises," Economics Working Paper Archive at Hunter College 429, Hunter College Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:htr:hcecon:429
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    Cited by:

    1. Meza, Felipe & Urrutia, Carlos, 2011. "Financial liberalization, structural change, and real exchange rate appreciations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 317-328.
    2. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2013. "Misallocation and productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, January.
    3. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia & Felipe Meza, 2017. "Credit, Misallocation and Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis," 2017 Meeting Papers 538, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Teles, Vladimir K & de Prince Mendonça, Diogo, 2013. "Política Monetária em Tempos de Crise," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, FGV/EPGE - Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
    5. Hidemichi Fujii & A. George Assaf & Shunsuke Managi & Roman Matousek, 2016. "Did the financial crisis affect environmental efficiency? evidence from the Japanese manufacturing sector," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 18(2), pages 159-168, April.
    6. Ezra Oberfield, 2013. "Productivity and Misallocation During a Crisis: Evidence from the Chilean Crisis of 1982," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 100-119, January.
    7. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    8. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:n:4:a:7 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Felipe Meza & Carlos Urrutia, 2008. "Great Appreciations: Accounting for the Real Exchange Rate in Mexico, 1988-2002," Working Papers 0807, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    10. Uras, Burak R., 2014. "Corporate financial structure, misallocation and total factor productivity," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 177-191.
    11. Schwartzman, Felipe, 2014. "Time to produce and emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 37-52.
    12. Cristina Arellano & Yan Bai & Gabriel Mihalache, 2017. "Default Risk, Sectoral Reallocation, and Persistent Recessions," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2017 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Kaoru Hosono & Miho Takizawa, 2012. "Do Financial Frictions Matter as a Source of Misallocation? Evidence from Japan," Discussion papers ron246, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan.
    14. Jones, John Bailey & Pratap, Sangeeta, 2017. "An Estimated Structural Model of Entrepreneurial Behavior," Working Paper 17-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    15. repec:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:11:p:2545-2561 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez & Horacio Sapriza, 2009. "On the cyclicality of the interest rate in emerging economy models: solution methods matter," Working Paper 09-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    17. HOSONO Kaoru & TAKIZAWA Miho, 2015. "Misallocation and Establishment Dynamics," Discussion papers 15011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    18. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia & Felipe Meza, 2014. "Credit, Misallocation and TFP: The case of Mexico (2003-2010)," 2014 Meeting Papers 701, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Queraltó, Albert, 2013. "A Model of Slow Recoveries from Financial Crises," International Finance Discussion Papers 1097, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial frictions; labor market turbulence; adjustment costs; sudden stops; total factor productivity; output fluctuations;

    JEL classification:

    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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