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Firm Dynamics, Investment and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994

  • Sangeeta Pratap
  • Carlos Urrutia

We build a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics under exchange rate uncertainty. Firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and observe the current level of the real exchange rate each period. Given their current level of capital stock, firms make their export decisions and choose how much to invest, subject to a cost of adjustment in capital. Investment is financed through one period loans from foreign lenders. The interest rate charged by each lender is set as to satisfy an expected zero-profit condition. The model delivers a distribution of firms over productivity, capital stocks, and debt portfolios, as well as an exit rule. We calibrate the model using data from a panel of Mexican firms, from 1991 to 2000, and analyze the effect of the 1994 crisis on these variables. As a result of the real exchange rate depreciation, the model predicts: (i) a large fall in investment, (ii), a decrease in average productivity, (iii) an increase in exports, (iv) a reduction in the number of firms due to default and (v) a debt portfolio reallocation towards domestic debt. These real effects are consistent with the evidence for the Mexican crisis.

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Paper provided by Society for Economic Dynamics in its series 2004 Meeting Papers with number 462.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:462
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  1. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2000. "Balance SHeet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 8060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ignacio Lobato & Sangeeta Pratap & Alejandro Somuano, 2004. "Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility in Mexico: A Firm Level Analysis," Working Papers 0405, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  3. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
  4. Sangeeta Pratap & Silvio Rendon, 2003. "Firm Investment in Imperfect Capital Markets: A Structural Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 513-545, July.
  5. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
  6. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December.
  7. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  8. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenza Martinez, 2004. "NAFTA and Mexico's Less-Than-Stellar Performance," NBER Working Papers 10289, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
  10. Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000. "International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 7971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
  12. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
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