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Firm Dynamics, Investment and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994

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  • Sangeeta Pratap
  • Carlos Urrutia

Abstract

We build a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics under exchange rate uncertainty. Firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and observe the current level of the real exchange rate each period. Given their current level of capital stock, firms make their export decisions and choose how much to invest, subject to a cost of adjustment in capital. Investment is financed through one period loans from foreign lenders. The interest rate charged by each lender is set as to satisfy an expected zero-profit condition. The model delivers a distribution of firms over productivity, capital stocks, and debt portfolios, as well as an exit rule. We calibrate the model using data from a panel of Mexican firms, from 1991 to 2000, and analyze the effect of the 1994 crisis on these variables. As a result of the real exchange rate depreciation, the model predicts: (i) a large fall in investment, (ii), a decrease in average productivity, (iii) an increase in exports, (iv) a reduction in the number of firms due to default and (v) a debt portfolio reallocation towards domestic debt. These real effects are consistent with the evidence for the Mexican crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Investment and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994," 2004 Meeting Papers 462, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed004:462
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    Cited by:

    1. Kohn, David & Leibovici, Fernando & Szkup, Michal, 2020. "Financial frictions and export dynamics in large devaluations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Yuko Imura, 2014. "Credit Market Frictions and Sudden Stops," Staff Working Papers 14-49, Bank of Canada.
    3. Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Ibarrarán, 2012. "Firm dynamics and real exchange rate fluctuations: Does trade openness matter? Evidence from Mexico's manufacturing sector," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 409-469, May.
    4. Nicolas Berman, 2009. "Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/23, European University Institute.
    5. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    6. Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim, 2007. "Investment During The Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Approach," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2007-001, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    7. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    8. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2011. "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1265-1279.
    9. Akira Ishide, 2025. "Allocative Inefficiency during a Sudden Stop," CARF F-Series CARF-F-602, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    10. Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
    11. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    12. Febri Nanda Marchela & Purwanto Widodo, 2023. "Determinants of non-performing loans in Regional Development Banks (BPD) in Indonesia," International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science (2147-4478), Center for the Strategic Studies in Business and Finance, vol. 12(3), pages 263-271, April.
    13. Dao, Mai Chi & Minoiu, Camelia & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2021. "Corporate investment and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2012. "Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 336-358, July.
    15. Chien-Jen Wang & Po-Chin Wu & Yu-Ming Lu, 2011. "Twin-Rate Uncertainty, Debt And Investment Decisions– Evidence From Dow Jones Panel Data," Global Journal of Business Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 5(1), pages 15-26.
    16. Saom Shawleen Anita & Nishat Tasnova & Nousheen Nawar, 2022. "Are non-performing loans sensitive to macroeconomic determinants? an empirical evidence from banking sector of SAARC countries," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16, December.
    17. Mustafa Caglayan & Rebeca Muñoz Torres, 2011. "The Effect of the Exchange Rates on Investment in Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 669-683, September.
    18. Yue Ma, 2009. "External Shocks, Balance Sheet Contagion, and Speculative Attack on the Pegged Exchange Rate System," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 87-98, February.
    19. Youngwoo Rho & Joel Rodrigue, 2015. "Growing into Export Markets: The Impact of Exporting on Firm-level Investment in Indonesia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 62-85, February.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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