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Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994


  • Sangeeta Pratap

    () (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))

  • Carlos Urrutia

    () (Centro de Investigacion Economica (CIE), Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo de Mexico (ITAM))


We build a partial equilibrium model of firm dynamics under exchange rate uncertainty. Firms face idiosyncratic productivity shocks and observe the current level of the real exchange rate each period. Given their current level of capital stock, firms make their export decisions and choose how much to invest. Investment is financed through one period loans from foreign lenders. The interest rate charged by each lender is set to satisfy an expected zero-profit condition. The model delivers a distribution of firms over productivity, capital stocks and debt portfolios, as well as an exit rule. We calibrate the model using data from a panel of Mexican firms, from 1989 to 2000, and analyze the effect of the 1994 crisis on these variables. As a result of the real exchange rate depreciation, the model predicts: (i) an increase in the debt burden, (ii) an increase in exports, and (iii) a large decline in investment. These real effects are consistent with the evidence for the Mexican crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2004. "Firm Dynamics, Investment, and Debt Portfolio: Balance Sheet Effects of the Mexican Crisis of 1994," Working Papers 0406, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
  • Handle: RePEc:cie:wpaper:0406

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann & Lorenzo Martinez, 2004. "Nafta and Mexico Less-than-Steller Performance," UCLA Economics Working Papers 833, UCLA Department of Economics.
    2. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    3. Tauchen, George, 1986. "Finite state markov-chain approximations to univariate and vector autoregressions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 177-181.
    4. Hoyt Bleakley & Kevin Cowan, 2008. "Corporate Dollar Debt and Depreciations: Much Ado About Nothing?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 612-626, November.
    5. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "A simple model of monetary policy and currency crises," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(4-6), pages 728-738, May.
    6. Pratap, Sangeeta & Lobato, Ignacio & Somuano, Alejandro, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 450-471, December.
    7. Sangeeta Pratap & Silvio Rendon, 2003. "Firm Investment in Imperfect Capital Markets: A Structural Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(3), pages 513-545, July.
    8. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    9. Thomas F. Cooley & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2001. "Financial Markets and Firm Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1286-1310, December.
    10. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    11. Raphael Bergoeing & Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe & Raimundo Soto, 2002. "Decades lost and found: Mexico and Chile since 1980," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 3-30.
    12. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Fuentes & Pablo Ibarrarán, 2012. "Firm dynamics and real exchange rate fluctuations: Does trade openness matter? Evidence from Mexico's manufacturing sector," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 409-469, May.
    2. Nicolas Berman, 2009. "Financial Crises and International Trade: The Long Way to Recovery," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/23, European University Institute.
    3. David Kohn & Fernando Leibovici & Michal Szkup, 2015. "Financial Frictions and Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015_2, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    4. Mustafa Caglayan & Rebeca Muñoz Torres, 2011. "The Effect of the Exchange Rates on Investment in Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 669-683, September.
    5. Carranza, Luis & Galdon-Sanchez, Jose E. & Gomez-Biscarri, Javier, 2011. "The relationship between investment and large exchange rate depreciations in dollarized economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1265-1279.
    6. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    7. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2012. "Financial Frictions and Total Factor Productivity: Accounting for the Real Effects of Financial Crises," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 336-358, July.
    8. Youngwoo Rho & Joel Rodrigue, 2015. "Growing into Export Markets: The Impact of Exporting on Firm-level Investment in Indonesia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 62-85, February.

    More about this item


    Devaluation; Investment; Exports; Balance Sheet Effects;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies


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