The credibility of exchange rate pegs and bank distress in historical perspective: lessons from the national banking era
We examine a period during the prevalence of the gold standard in the United States to provide evidence that speculation about a currency peg can have damaging effects on bank balance sheets. In particular, the defeat of the pro-silver candidate in the 1896 presidential election was associated with a large and permanent increase in bank leverage, with the initial impact most pronounced among states where banks held more specie in proportion to their assets and were, therefore, also more committed to paying out deposits in specie. Based on the cross-sectional pattern of changes in leverage observed in 1896, we construct a measure of the credibility of the gold standard spanning the entire sample period. Changes in this measure correlate with changes in aggregate bank leverage, suggesting that uncertainty about the monetary standard played an important role in the 1893 banking panic and its aftermath.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/|
More information through EDIRC
|Order Information:|| Web: http://www.richmondfed.org/publications/ Email: |
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2002.
"Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel,"
IMF Working Papers
02/141, International Monetary Fund.
- Choi, Woon Gyu & Cook, David, 2004. "Liability dollarization and the bank balance sheet channel," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 247-275, December.
- Frieden, Jeffry A., 1997. "Monetary Populism in Nineteenth-Century America: An Open Economy Interpretation," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(02), pages 367-395, June.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002.
"Fear of floating,"
14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Grilli, Vittorio, 1990. "Managing exchange rate crises: evidence from the 1890s," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 258-275, September.
- Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1, August.
- Jeanne, Olivier, 1999. "Currency Crises: A Perspective on Recent Theoretical Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 2170, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kevin Cowan & Erwin Hansen & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2005.
"Currency Mismatches, Balance-Sheet Effects and Hedging in Chilean Non-Financial Corporations,"
Research Department Publications
4387, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Kevin Cowan & Erwin Hansen & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2005. "Currency Mismatches, Balance Sheet Effects and Hedging in Chilean non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 346, Central Bank of Chile.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2001.
"Currency crises and monetary policy in an economy with credit constraints,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1121-1150.
- Philippe Aghion & Philippe Bacchetta & Abhijit Banerjee, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Working Papers 00.07, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
- Banerjee, Abhijit & Bacchetta, Philippe & Aghion, Philippe, 2001. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," Scholarly Articles 4554218, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2000. "Currency Crises and Monetary Policy in an Economy with Credit Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 2529, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mark Carlson, 2002.
"Causes of bank suspensions in the panic of 1893,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2002-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Pratap, Sangeeta & Lobato, Ignacio & Somuano, Alejandro, 2003.
"Debt composition and balance sheet effects of exchange rate volatility in Mexico: a firm level analysis,"
Emerging Markets Review,
Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 450-471, December.
- Ignacio Lobato & Sangeeta Pratap & Alejandro Somuano, 2004. "Debt Composition and Balance Sheet Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility in Mexico: A Firm Level Analysis," Working Papers 0405, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
- Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
- James, John A, 1976. "Banking Market Structure, Risk, and the Pattern of Local Interest Rates in the United States, 1893-1911," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(4), pages 453-62, November.
- Gorton, Gary, 1988.
"Banking Panics and Business Cycles,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 751-81, December.
- Ricardo Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2000.
"International and Domestic Collateral Constraints in a Model of Emerging Market Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
7971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
- Brandon R. Dupont, 2009. "Panic in the plains: agricultural markets and the panic of 1893," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(1), pages 27-54, January.
- Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:13-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (William Perkins)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.