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Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893

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  • Ramírez, Carlos D.

Abstract

This paper examines how the US financial crisis of 1893 affected state output growth between 1900 and 1930. The results indicate that a 1% increase in bank instability reduced output growth by 2-5%. A comparison of Nebraska, which had one of the highest bank failure rates, with West Virginia, which did not experience a single bank failure, reveals that disintermediation affected growth through a portfolio change among savers: people simply stopped trusting banks. Time series evidence from newspapers indicates that articles containing the words "money hidden" significantly increase after banking crises, then slowly die out.

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  • Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:33:y:2009:i:12:p:2185-2198
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    Cited by:

    1. Scott L. Fulford & Felipe Schwartzman, 2013. "The credibility of exchange rate pegs and bank distress in historical perspective: lessons from the national banking era," Working Paper 13-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    2. Olivier Blanchard & Eugenio Cerutti & Lawrence Summers, 2015. "Inflation and Activity – Two Explorations and their Monetary Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 21726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Taškar Sabina & Šebjan Urban, 2015. "Is Trust in Banks in Slovenia Put to the Test?," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, De Gruyter Open, vol. 61(3), pages 41-50, June.
    4. Davison, Lee K. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2014. "Local banking panics of the 1920s: Identification and determinants," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 164-177.
    5. Jaremski, Matthew & Rousseau, Peter L., 2018. "The dawn of an ‘age of deposits’ in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 264-281.
    6. Kupiec, Paul H. & Ramirez, Carlos D., 2013. "Bank failures and the cost of systemic risk: Evidence from 1900 to 1930," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 285-307.

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