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Finance Causes Growth: Can We Be So Sure?

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  • Manning Mark J

    () (University College London)

Abstract

In recent years, a number of studies have found in favour of a causal link between finance and growth. This paper examines the empirical foundations of such studies, performing some additional econometric tests using the datasets and methodologies of Rajan and Zingales (1998a) and Levine and Zervos (1998). First, we consider the stability of published results across countries at different stages in their economic development, re-estimating Rajan and Zingales specification to allow separate coefficients for OECD and non-OECD member countries. We find that finance has a greater impact upon growth in non-OECD countries, with bank finance of particular importance. Second, we explore the issue of identification, concluding that it is difficult to disentangle the effect of financial development from that of other correlated factors. In particular, we show that the results of these authors depend heavily on the strong performance of the Tiger economies during the 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Manning Mark J, 2003. "Finance Causes Growth: Can We Be So Sure?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:contributions.3:y:2003:i:1:n:12
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Trew, Alex, 2008. "Efficiency, depth and growth: Quantitative implications of finance and growth theory," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1550-1568, December.
    2. Petra Valickova & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2015. "Financial Development And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 506-526, July.
    3. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Claire Labonne, 2016. "More Bankers, More Growth? Evidence from OECD Countries," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 45(1), pages 37-51, February.
    4. Anna Ząbkowicz & Sławomir Czech, 2016. "Revisiting conventional wisdom: does financialization have to leave sovereigns subordinated?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 47.
    5. Andrea Vaona, 2005. "Regional Evidence on the Finance-Growth Nexus," Working Papers 30/2005, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    6. Peter L. Rousseau & Paul Wachtel, 2011. "What Is Happening To The Impact Of Financial Deepening On Economic Growth?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(1), pages 276-288, January.
    7. Francesco Aiello & Camilla Mastromarco & Angelo Zago, 2011. "Be productive or face decline. On the sources and determinants of output growth in Italian manufacturing firms," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 787-815, December.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Financial Development, Domestic Savings and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: Using Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(5), pages 59-73, May.
    9. repec:cai:refaef:ecofi_127_0037 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2005. "Economic Growth and Financial Depth: Is the Relationship Extinct Already?," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2005/10, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Ramírez, Carlos D., 2009. "Bank fragility, "money under the mattress", and long-run growth: US evidence from the "perfect" Panic of 1893," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(12), pages 2185-2198, December.
    12. Kar, Muhsin & Nazlıoğlu, Şaban & Ağır, Hüseyin, 2011. "Financial development and economic growth nexus in the MENA countries: Bootstrap panel granger causality analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 685-693.
    13. M. Bijlsma & C.J.M. Kool & Marielle Non, 2017. "The effect of financial development on economic growth : a meta-analysis," Working Papers 17-01, Utrecht School of Economics.
    14. repec:eee:ecanpo:v:55:y:2017:i:c:p:106-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Max Gillman & Mark N Harris & Michal Kejak, 2007. "The Interaction of Inflation and Financial Development with Endogenous Growth," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 29, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    16. Paolo Coccorese & Damiano Silipo, 2015. "Growth without finance, finance without growth," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 279-304, August.
    17. Ross Mcleod, 2006. "Indonesia's new deposit guarantee law," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 59-78.
    18. Chung-Hua Shen & Chien-Chiang Lee & Chi-Chuan Lee, 2010. "What Makes International Capital Flows Promote Economic Growth? An International Cross-Country Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 515-546, November.
    19. Charles Ka Yui Leung & Edward Chi Ho Tang, 2015. "Speculating China Economic Growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from Stock Market IPOs and Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 18(1), pages 45-87.
    20. Mahmut ERDOGAN & Jülide YILDIRIM & Nadir ÖCAL, "undated". "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey: a Spatial Effect Analysis," EcoMod2008 23800034, EcoMod.
    21. Coccorese, Paolo, 2008. "An investigation on the causal relationships between banking concentration and economic growth," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 557-570, June.
    22. Fanta Ashenafi Beyene & Makina Daniel, 2016. "The Finance Growth Link: Comparative Analysis of Two Eastern African Countries," Comparative Economic Research, De Gruyter Open, vol. 19(3), pages 147-167, September.

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