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Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis

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  • Simon Gilchrist
  • Jae W. Sim

Abstract

This paper uses firm-level panel data to analyze the role of financial factors in determining investment outcomes during the Korean financial crisis. Our identification strategy exploits the presence of foreign-denominated debt to measure shocks to the financial position of firms following the devaluation that occurred during the crisis period. Structural parameter estimates imply that financial factors may account for 50% to 80% of the overall drop in investment observed during this episode. Our estimates also imply that foreign-denominated debt had relatively little effect on aggregate investment spending. Counterfactual experiments suggest sizeable contractions in investment through this mechanism for economies that are more heavily dependent on foreign-denominated debt however.

Suggested Citation

  • Simon Gilchrist & Jae W. Sim, 2007. "Investment during the Korean Financial Crisis: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 13315, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13315
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    3. Juliana Salomao & Liliana Varela, 2022. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(1), pages 481-514.
    4. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    5. Uluc Aysun, 2012. "Capital Flows, Maturity Mismatches, and Profitability in Emerging Markets: Evidence From Bank Level Data," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 46(1), pages 211-239, January-J.
    6. Caballero, Julián, 2021. "Corporate dollar debt and depreciations: All’s well that ends well?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    7. Endrész, Marianna & Harasztosi, Péter, 2014. "Corporate foreign currency borrowing and investment: The case of Hungary," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 265-287.
    8. François Gourio & Jianjun Miao, 2010. "Firm Heterogeneity and the Long-Run Effects of Dividend Tax Reform," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 131-168, January.
    9. Mariann Endrész & Gyõzõ Gyöngyösi & Péter Harasztosi, 2012. "Currency mismatch and the sub-prime crisis: firm-level stylised facts from Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2012/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    10. Hardy, Bryan, 2023. "Foreign currency borrowing, balance sheet shocks, and real outcomes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    11. Bryan Hardy & Felipe Saffie, 2019. "From carry trades to trade credit: financial intermediation by non-financial corporations," BIS Working Papers 773, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Stjepan Srhoj & Bruno Škrinjarić & Sonja Radas, 2021. "Bidding against the odds? The impact evaluation of grants for young micro and small firms during the recession," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 83-103, January.
    13. Mehtap Kesriyeli & Erdal Ozmen & Serkan Yiğit, 2011. "Corporate sector liability dollarization and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(30), pages 4741-4747.
    14. Vitezić Vanja & Srhoj Stjepan & Perić Marko, 2018. "Investigating Industry Dynamics in a Recessionary Transition Economy," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 43-67, June.
    15. Virgiliu Midrigan & Daniel Yi Xu, 2014. "Finance and Misallocation: Evidence from Plant-Level Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 422-458, February.
    16. Brei, Michael & Charpe, Matthieu, 2012. "Currency depreciations, financial transfers, and firm heterogeneity," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 26-41.
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    18. Kim, Yun Jung & Tesar, Linda L. & Zhang, Jing, 2015. "The impact of foreign liabilities on small firms: Firm-level evidence from the Korean crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 209-230.
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    20. Liliana Varela & Juliana Salomao, 2016. "Exchange Rate Exposure and Firm Dynamics," Working Papers 2016-278-05, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
    21. Shesadri Banerjee & M S Mohanty, 2021. "US monetary policy and the financial channel of the exchange rate: evidence from India," BIS Working Papers 945, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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