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Currency mismatch and the sub-prime crisis: firm-level stylised facts from Hungary


  • Mariann Endrész

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Gyõzõ Gyöngyösi

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))

  • Péter Harasztosi

    () (Magyar Nemzeti Bank (central bank of Hungary))


This paper investigates currency mismatch in the Hungarian corporate sector. Using a novel dataset on non-financial firms we first identify firms with mismatch, measure their weight in the economy and show their main characteristics. We then analyze the performance of firms during the crisis. We find that a significant share of firms with FX debt had no natural hedge, i.e. no FX revenues from exports. The firms exposed to currency mismatch had a sizeable share both in real aggregates and on the loan market before the crisis. Firms with currency mismatch tended to be larger and more indebted, which suggests that FX borrowing might have eased their liquidity constraint before the crisis. During the crisis balance sheet effects were likely to be triggered by the large depreciations. Firms with FX loans had a larger fall in investment, and were more likely to go bankrupt. Their deteriorating performance and the reassessment of holding FX debt both by banks and firms led to major changes on the loan market. FX lending became less popular, and firms with mismatch were less likely to get new loans.

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  • Mariann Endrész & Gyõzõ Gyöngyösi & Péter Harasztosi, 2012. "Currency mismatch and the sub-prime crisis: firm-level stylised facts from Hungary," MNB Working Papers 2012/8, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
  • Handle: RePEc:mnb:wpaper:2012/8

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Marcio M. Janot & Marcio G. P. Garcia & Walter Novaes, 2008. "Balance Sheet Effects in Currency Crises: Evidence from Brazil," Textos para discussão 556, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
    2. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2003. "Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance and Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why it Matters," NBER Working Papers 10036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    4. Thierry Mayer & Gianmarco Ottaviano, 2008. "The Happy Few: The Internationalisation of European Firms," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;German National Library of Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 43(3), pages 135-148, May.
    5. Galindo, Arturo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Montero, Jose Manuel, 2007. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 284-298, December.
    6. Galindo, Arturo & Panizza, Ugo & Schiantarelli, Fabio, 2003. "Debt composition and balance sheet effects of currency depreciation: a summary of the micro evidence," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 330-339, December.
    7. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 597-658, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kátay, Gábor & Péter, Harasztosi, 2017. "Currency Matching and Carry Trade by Non-Financial Corporations," Working Papers 2017-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Dzsamila Vonnak, 2015. "Decomposing the Riskiness of Corporate Foreign Currency Lending: the Case of Hungary," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1528, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    3. Endrész, Marianna & Harasztosi, Péter, 2014. "Corporate foreign currency borrowing and investment: The case of Hungary," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 265-287.
    4. Jakucionyte, Egle & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2017. "Debt Overhang and the Macroeconomics of Carry Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 11788, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Szilágyi, Katalin & Kiss, Áron, 2014. "Miért más ez a válság, mint a többi?. Az adósságleépítés szerepe a nagy recesszióban
      [Why is this crisis different?. The role of deleveraging in the great recession]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 949-974.
    6. Kim, Yun Jung, 2016. "Foreign currency exposure and balance sheet effects: A firm-level analysis for Korea," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 64-79.
    7. Vonnák, Dzsamila & Ongena, Steven & Schindele, Ibolya, 2017. "Monetáris politika és a bankok hitelkínálata. Vállalati adatokon alapuló elemzés
      [Monetary policy and bank-loan supply: evidence from firm-level analysis]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 217-237.

    More about this item


    currency mismatch; liability dollarisation; firm level data;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance

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