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Balance Sheet Effects in Currency Crises: Evidence from Brazil

  • Marcio M. Janot
  • Márcio G. P. Garcia
  • Walter Novaes

"Third-generation currency crises models" argue that capital losses from exchange-rate depreciation propagate the crises to the productive sector. To test these models, we use a firm-level dataset that allows us to measure currency mismatches around the 2002 Brazilian currency crisis. We find that, between 2001 and 2003, firms that shortly before the crisis had large currency mismatches decreased their investment rates by 8.1 percentual points, relatively to other public firms. Moreover, we show that the currency depreciation implied large competitive gains for the exporters, and yet the investment of exporters with large currency mismatches fell by 12.5 percentual points, relatively to other exporters. The estimated falls in investment are economically very relevant, thereby corroborating the relevance of third generation models negative balance sheet effects.

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File URL: http://www.bcb.gov.br/pec/wps/ingl/wps162.pdf
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Paper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 162.

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Date of creation: Apr 2008
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Handle: RePEc:bcb:wpaper:162
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english

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  1. Richard Blundell & Mónica Costa Dias, 2008. "Alternative Approaches to Evaluation in Empirical Microeconomics," CEF.UP Working Papers 0805, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
  2. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  3. Kevin Cowan & Erwin Hansen & Luis Oscar Herrera, 2005. "Currency Mismatches, Balance-Sheet Effects and Hedging in Chilean Non-Financial Corporations," Research Department Publications 4387, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  4. Martins, Betina Guimarães Dodsworth & Pinto, Rodrigo Ribeiro Antunes & Bonomo, Marco Antônio Cesar, 2004. "Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effects in Brazil: A firm level analysis," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 535, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
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