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Labor, Output and Consumption in Business Cycle Models of Emerging Economies: A Comment

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  • Andrés Fernández
  • Felipe Meza

Abstract

Motivated by the fact that, over the business cycle, labor dynamics in emergingeconomies differ in nontrivial ways from those observed in developed economies, we assess the relative importance of trend shocks in emerging economies in the business cycle model of Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) when labor data is explicitly taken into account. We study Mexico and Canada as representatives of emerging and developed economies, respectively. We find for Mexico that, in the benchmark case with Cobb-Douglas preferences, the income effect on consumption of trend shocks is too strong, delivering countercyclical and counterfactual fluctuations in employment. The model faces a trade-off between, on the one hand, having sizeable growth shocks, thereby having a good match in terms of relatively high consumption volatility, and, on the other, having procyclical employment dynamics. This is remedied when both quasilinear preferences are assumed and the identification strategy explicitly takes into consideration labor dynamics. In this case trend shocks continue to be relatively stronger in emerging economies.Additionally, we find that differences in labor dynamics across emerging and developing economies are associated with the relatively large informal labor sector in emerging economies. It is in this dimension, when trying to match the dynamics of formal employment, that we find less evidence supporting an important role of trend shocks as being the main driving force of business cycles in emerging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrés Fernández & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Labor, Output and Consumption in Business Cycle Models of Emerging Economies: A Comment," Documentos CEDE 009249, Universidad de los Andes - CEDE.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:009249
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    Cited by:

    1. Fernández Martín, Andrés & Herreño, Juan David, 2013. "Equilibrium Unemployment During Financial Crises," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4238, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Andres Fernandez & Felipe Meza, 2015. "Informal Employment and Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Case of Mexico," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(2), pages 381-405, April.
    3. De La Peña, Rogelio, 2021. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind in a small-open economy? Revisiting the Tinbergen rule," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).
    4. Rogelio De la Peña, 2021. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind in a small-open economy? Revisiting the Tinbergen rule," Working Papers 2021-01, Banco de México.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emerging economies; labor dynamics; consumption volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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