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The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2: Catching Up to and Joining the Economic Leader

Author

Listed:
  • Kehoe, Timothy J.

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Costa, Daniela

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

  • Raveendranathan, Gajen

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis)

Abstract

Rostow (1960) hypothesized that taking off into economic growth was a difficult task for countries in the 19th century, requiring major changes in institutions. In the 20th century, however, as the United States and other advanced countries became richer because of improvements in technologies and managerial practices, it became easier for poor countries to take off into rapid growth by adopting some of these improvements. {{p}} We hypothesize that, while taking off is now easier, the difficult transition is now from take-off to catch-up, where nations grow closer to the economic leader (now the United States). Doing so often requires major reforms in policies and institutions. Data suggest that when countries reach the limits imposed by their policies and institutions, their growth slows sharply. Even countries like Japan that have joined the United States in economic leadership in defining best practice in some sectors lag behind in other sectors. Our theory suggests that China is currently reaching its limits to rapid growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Kehoe, Timothy J. & Costa, Daniela & Raveendranathan, Gajen, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited, Part 2: Catching Up to and Joining the Economic Leader," Economic Policy Paper 16-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmep:16-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Timothy Kehoe & Sewon Hur & Kim Ruhl & Jose Asturias, 2016. "Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth," 2016 Meeting Papers 573, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Catch-up growth followed by stagnation: Mexico, 1950–2010," Working Papers 693, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    3. Asturias, Jose & Hur, Sewon & Kehoe, Timothy J. & Ruhl, Kim J., 2016. "The interaction and sequencing of policy reforms," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 45-66.
    4. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2010. "Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1005-1027, December.
    6. Douglass C. North, 1968. "Sources of Productivity Change in Ocean Shipping, 1600-1850," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 953-953.
    7. Timothy Kehoe & Felipe Meza, 2011. "Catch-up Growth Followed by Stagnation: Mexico 1950–2008," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 48(2), pages 227-268.
    8. Parente, Stephen L & Prescott, Edward C, 1994. "Barriers to Technology Adoption and Development," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(2), pages 298-321, April.
    9. Indermit Gill & Homi Kharas, 2007. "An East Asian Renaissance : Ideas for Economic Growth," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6798.
    10. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Costa, Daniela & Raveendranathan, Gajen, 2016. "The Stages of Economic Growth Revisited: Part 1: A General Framework and Taking Off into Growth," Economic Policy Paper 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    11. Stephen L. Parente & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Barriers to Riches," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262661306.
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Carlos Conesa & Pau S. Pujolas, 2017. "The Canadian Productivity Stagnation, 2002-2014," Department of Economics Working Papers 2017-04, McMaster University, revised Sep 2017.

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