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Business Cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic Countries: An RBC Approach

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  • Vasilev, Aleksandar Zdravkov

Abstract

This paper explores the business cycle in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries: Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania during the 1993-2005 period. The paper aims at deepening the understanding of the nature of output fluctuations. The neoclassical approach will be employed, much in the spirit of the Real Business Cycle (RBC) literature, which gives a general equilibrium picture of the transition process. The model used in this paper follows the methodology of King, Plosser and Rebelo (1988). Calibration parameters, taken from data on Bulgarian and Baltic economies, are used in the estimation procedure. Both the model and data series show that the major drop in output was due to productivity. In addition, the timing of the banking reforms coincides with the improvement of economic performance. This is a strong indication that banking regulations in place were crucial for the output performance throughout the period in Bulgaria and the Baltic countries, a finding that has important implications for economic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Vasilev, Aleksandar Zdravkov, 2008. "Business Cycles in Bulgaria and the Baltic Countries: An RBC Approach," EconStor Conference Papers 141828, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:esconf:141828
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2016. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with efficiency wages and fiscal policy: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Preprints 148413, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    2. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2016. "Search and Matching Frictions and Business Cycle Fluctuations in Bulgaria," Bulgarian Economic Papers (www.bep.bg) bep-2016-03, St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration / Center for Economic Theories and Policies, revised Feb 2016.
    3. repec:zbw:espost:170575 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Aleksandar Vasilev, 2018. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with reciprocity in labor relations and a government sector," Journal of Economics and Econometrics, Economics and Econometrics Society, vol. 61(2), pages 47-76.
    5. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "A business-cycle model with a modified cash-in-advance feature, government sector and one-period nominal wage contracts: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Preprints 174488, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    6. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "A business-cycle-model with monopolistically-competitive intermediary firms and sticky nominal wages: the case of Bulgaria after the introduction of the currency board (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 175183, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    7. repec:psc:journl:v:9:y:2017:i:4:p:359-377 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2017. "A Real-Business-Cycle model with reciprocity in labor relations and fiscal policy: the case of Bulgaria," EconStor Preprints 156164, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    9. Vasilev, Aleksandar, 2018. "The role of energy in a real-business-cycle model with an endogenous capital utilization rate and a government sector: the case of Bulgaria (1999-2016)," EconStor Preprints 173966, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    real business cycles; Bulgaria and the Baltic countries; total factor productivity;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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